Nifty 50’s 3-month rally lifts nearly half its stocks 20-50% in 2025; Bajaj Finance leads gains

The Nifty 50 advanced for a third straight month in November, supported by positive domestic and global cues, as its sustained momentum helps narrow the performance gap with other major Asian markets. Although the index began the month on a weak note, it regained momentum in the second week and sustained it through the end of November. The rebound has also come amid a sharp sell-off in global markets, as the AI-powered rally that enabled investors to mint billions has fizzled due to valuation concerns. This also prompted overseas investors to turn their attention back to opportunities in the Indian stock market, as evident from their repeated net buying during the second half of November. November also marked a major milestone for the index, as it set a fresh all-time high after a gap of 14 months. The strong GDP growth of 8.2% in the September quarter further propelled it to touch another lifetime high of 26,325 in today’s trade, December 01, taking its yearly return to 11% so far and putting it on track to achieve a tenth consecutive yearly gain. Market sentiment has improved in recent months amid an earnings recovery that eased valuation concerns, along with recent policy measures announced by both the RBI and the government. These developments have strengthened expectations that the earnings rebound will continue in the coming quarters as well. This improving backdrop has not only boosted domestic sentiment but has also led global brokerage firms to turn bullish on the Indian stock market. Nifty 50 leadership shifts to Autos and NBFCs Among the top performers in the Nifty 50 in 2025 are stocks from the auto and NBFC space, with Bajaj Finance leading the pack as it has surged 50% so far to ₹1,021, while Bajaj Finserv has also risen sharply by 32.3%. Maruti Suzuki has surged 48.24% to ₹16,097, marking its largest yearly gain since 2017, and if it closes 2025 higher, which appears likely, it will record its fifth straight year of positive returns. Other auto stocks such as Mahindra & Mahindra have delivered a solid return of 24.5%, while Eicher Motors has surged 48% to ₹7,125 apiece, putting it on track for a sixth straight year of positive returns. Shriram Finance was the third top performer among the constituents, with the stock gaining 47.40% to ₹851.60 apiece. Bharat Electronics has risen 47.2% to ₹417.25 apiece, building on a 60% rally in the previous calendar year, with this year marking its seventh consecutive year of positive returns. Reliance Industries, the country’s most valuable company by market capitalisation, has also soared 29% to ₹1,566. Tata Consumer Products has delivered a 27.3% return, while other Tata Group stocks, including Tata Steel and Titan, have surged 22.15% and 20%, respectively. Banking stocks such as SBI, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Axis Bank have rallied 22.4%, 20.2%, and 20%. IndiGo and Asian Paints shares have advanced 27.2% and 26%, respectively. Other stocks, such as SBI Life Insurance and Adani Ports & SEZ, have risen 24.3% and 42%. From the metal pack, Hindalco and JSW Steel have risen 34.6% and 30%, respectively, so far in 2025. Telecom major Bharti Airtel has continued to attract bulls for the seventh straight year, surging another 32%. Nifty 50's near-term outlook boosted by improving earnings visibility Financial services firm Equirus Securities, in its latest note, highlighted that earnings growth for the Nifty 50 is set to improve meaningfully in CY26–CY27, with estimates of 17–14%. Equirus Securities noted that with valuation upside capped due to elevated prices, future market returns will need to be driven primarily by earnings delivery. The brokerage added that despite a steep 13% cut to consensus EPS for CY25, current indicators point to the beginning of an earnings surprise cycle—one that could trigger meaningful upward revisions in EPS and serve as a more credible catalyst for a benchmark re-rating than liquidity flows. Equirus Securities further cautioned that while large-cap valuations have eased from post-COVID peaks, they remain above historical averages, and small-cap valuations are significantly stretched, with the small/large forward P/E ratio at around 1.25x versus a long-term average of 0.9x, leaving the segment vulnerable to reversals. Echoing a valuation-driven perspective, InCred Equities said that the forward P/E near its 10-year mean of 20x offers some comfort, particularly as the EPS outlook has stabilised in recent weeks. It also observed that the beta of both the Nifty 50 and Nifty 200 relative to the S&P 500 has eased sharply in recent years—including in the post-COVID period, which, according to the brokerage, should help cushion the domestic market from any potential global correction triggered by a possible unwinding of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) bubble, even as domestic factors continue to influence Nifty’s near-term performance. Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.