Top market experts outlined their budget expectations, calling for a 'Trinity' of fiscal discipline, continued capex, and non-tax revenue generation. Key recommendations included ease doing business and rationalising taxes for foreign funds. The panel also included an update on the NSE's listing hopes for Diwali.
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A panel of leading market experts, speaking with CNBC TV18 ahead of the Union Budget, shared their wishlist, including calls for tax rationalization for foreign investors, a seamless investment process, and fiscal prudence. The discussion also brought a significant update from Ashishkumar Chauhan, Managing Director and CEO of the National Stock Exchange (NSE), who expressed hope that the NSE could be listed by this year's Diwali Muhurat trading session.
Nilesh Shah of Kotak Mahindra AMC laid out a formidable challenge for the Finance Minister, terming it the 'Trinity of impossible'. His wishlist includes continuing government spending on infrastructure investment while private investment remains subdued, honouring the commitment to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio, and achieving this by boosting non-tax revenue through asset monetization and divestment, rather than raising taxes. Extending this theme, Shah proposed creating a 'DG Yatra for entrepreneurs', a system analogous to the seamless airport entry process, to streamline and accelerate both foreign and local investments.
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Echoing the need for policy stability, Gautam Chhaochharia of UBS stated his primary expectation from the budget is for there to be “no negative surprises.” He emphasized the importance of a long-term plan backed by specific policies to provide clarity and stability. Chhaochharia also noted that market participants are hoping for positive surprises, such as potential tax cuts for foreign portfolio investors (FPIs).
Delving deeper into the FPI issue, Nilesh Shah highlighted a key anomaly in the current tax structure. He pointed out that many foreign entities, such as endowment and pension funds, are tax-exempt in their home countries but are required to pay taxes in India. “While our returns could be higher on a post-tax basis, there is a mindset issue where I don't pay tax in my country, how can I pay tax in another country,” Shah explained. He proposed a rationalization of this policy by extending the capital gains tax exemptions, currently available to sovereign funds from countries like Singapore and the Middle East, to all FPIs that are tax-exempt in their own jurisdictions.
On the topic of the Securities Transaction Tax (STT), NSE chief Ashishkumar Chauhan acknowledged that such a tax is known to create friction in markets. However, he provided the government's perspective, noting that STT generates substantial revenue, estimated at ₹60,000-70,000 crore annually. He stressed that any relaxation or abolishment of STT would be a balancing act for the government, which would need to find alternative sources for these funds.
When asked about the sectoral priority for the budget to drive the investment climate, Nilesh Shah offered a one-word answer: “Liberalization.” He argued that liberalizing the environment for entrepreneurs would be the most effective way to spur growth, allowing them to identify and pursue opportunities.