Ahead of Market: 10 things that will decide stock market act...
23 Apr 2026
"Rupee continued to trade weak, declining by 35 paise to 93.78, as rising crude oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty kept pressure on the currency. The weakness is also linked to the RBI’s partial rollback of earlier forex curbs, which has eased restrictions on derivative trades and reduced some of the earlier support for the rupee.
At the same time, the dollar remains steady near 98, while uncertainty around US–Iran developments continues to keep markets cautious, with both escalation and de-escalation possibilities still on the table.
In the near term, the rupee is expected to trade in a range of 93.25–94.50, with direction largely driven by crude prices and geopolitical updates,” says Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.
"The index remained in a bearish grip during the day following a negative start on Wednesday. However, short term, sentiment remains positive as the index sustains above the 50EMA. The RSI is in a bearish crossover on the hourly chart. Besides, on a smaller timeframe, the index has fallen below the 20EMA, suggesting waning bullishness. The India VIX remained positive; however, it remains below the 50EMA, confirming decreased fear among investors. The setup looks balanced and non-indicative. Any development coming from the Middle East will have an impact on Thursday's opening. On the lower end, support is placed at 24,200, below which the index might drift down towards 23,900. On the higher end, 24,600 might act as resistance again, where the 100EMA is placed on the daily timeframe,” says Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.
India’s benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty, have started the financial year 2027 on a firmer footing, clawing back a portion of the losses suffered during the steep declines seen in March. OmniScience Capital remains optimistic about the outlook for Dalal Street, projecting that the Nifty could trade in the 28,000–31,000 range by the end of March 2027, indicating a potential upside of 15–25% from current levels.
Drivers behind the expected rise
The investment firm attributes this positive outlook primarily to earnings growth, which is estimated to be in the range of 10–13% for FY27. It also sees scope for valuation expansion, supported by a combination of easing geopolitical tensions, softer crude oil prices, a strengthening rupee, and a more benign inflation outlook. These conditions, it noted, could allow the Reserve Bank of India to maintain stable interest rates while also encouraging a return of foreign institutional investor inflows.
OmniScience further highlighted the long-term performance of the Nifty 50, noting that over the past 25 years, the index has delivered a compound annual growth rate of about 14.26%, including dividends. This sustained upward trend, despite intermittent sharp corrections, reflects consistent earnings growth and ongoing liquidity support over time.
Shares of major IT firms including Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, Infosys and Tech Mahindra faced heavy selling on Wednesday, falling by as much as 11% after HCLTech’s fourth-quarter results failed to meet expectations and its outlook for the upcoming quarters remained weak.
The cautious guidance set off a series of downgrades and cuts in target prices, pulling the broader IT sector lower and erasing nearly Rs 92,000 crore from the Nifty IT index’s market value in just one session. HCLTech recorded the steepest drop of 11%, while Tech Mahindra, Coforge, Persistent Systems and Infosys declined by up to 6%. Tata Consultancy Services and Wipro showed comparatively smaller losses but still slipped by as much as 2%.
While announcing its Q4 results on Tuesday, HCLTech projected revenue growth of 1% to 4% for FY27 in constant currency terms. The company also missed its FY26 growth guidance of 4.0% to 4.5%, reporting a lower figure of 3.9%. Its services segment is expected to grow between 1.5% and 4.5%, which is below the 4.8% growth achieved in FY26.
Among brokerages, Jefferies took the most negative stance, downgrading the stock to Underperform and assigning a price target of Rs 1,165, one of the lowest estimates in the market.
The dip may be short-lived. Donald Trump announced an extension of the US ceasefire with Iran just in time for after-hours trading. In USA, this was one of the best retail sales reports in months. Sales grew over 4% over this time last year, which is testament to the continued strength of the consumer. This should reassure those who were curious about demand destruction from the Iran conflict and higher prices for now. The first wave of tax refunds likely offset the impact of higher gas prices last month. With oil prices trending lower and tax refunds still filtering through the system, the backdrop for spending remains favourable, says Vikram Kasat, Head Advisory, PL Capital.
Shares of FMCG giant Nestle India climbed 3% to touch an intraday high of Rs 1,421 on the BSE on Wednesday after the company reported strong quarterly earnings that exceeded market expectations, lifting investor sentiment.
For the January–March quarter of FY26, the company posted a 27% year-on-year increase in consolidated net profit at Rs 1,111 crore. Revenue from operations also recorded a solid rise, growing 23% to Rs 6,748 crore compared with Rs 5,504 crore in the corresponding period last year.
The growth was supported by robust double-digit volume expansion, aided by a more than 50% jump in advertising expenditure. Despite the higher spending, the company maintained a healthy EBITDA margin of 26.3%. According to its statement, both overall and domestic sales rose by over 23% during the quarter, with contributions coming from all product segments.
The Indian rupee extended its losses for a third consecutive session, weakening by 31 paise to 93.75 against the US dollar in early trading on Wednesday. The currency came under pressure from elevated crude oil prices and lingering uncertainty over a potential peace deal in West Asia.
According to forex traders, continued outflows of foreign funds along with selling in domestic equities added to the downward pressure on the rupee. In the interbank forex market, the currency opened at 93.69, slipped to 93.76 during the session, and was trading at 93.75 against the dollar in early deals, marking a decline of 31 paise from its previous close.
On Tuesday, the rupee had settled 28 paise lower at 93.44, following a 25-paise drop on Monday. Prior to these declines, it had gained 47 paise over the preceding two sessions.
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of six major currencies, was largely steady, easing marginally by 0.01% to 98.21.
Shares of HCL Tech emerged as the biggest drag on the Sensex, plunging over 9% after its fourth-quarter results failed to meet market expectations. The weakness spread across the IT pack, with Tech Mahindra, Infosys and TCS slipping between 2% and 4% as sentiment in the sector turned negative. In contrast, Hindustan Unilever and NTPC moved higher by about 1%, providing some support to the benchmark index.
The broader market showed relative resilience and performed better than the frontline indices. Both the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 stayed in positive territory with modest gains. On the sectoral front, the Nifty IT index dropped more than 3%, leading the decline due to the weak earnings from HCL Tech, while the Nifty FMCG index advanced around 1%, standing out as a gainer. On the NSE, about 970 stocks ended lower, whereas 1,576 stocks rose and 116 remained unchanged.
Beyond financials, foreign investors reduced exposure to consumer services, healthcare and automobile stocks during the first half of April, with outflows of ₹5,336 crore, ₹4,481 crore and ₹3,704 crore, respectively. The auto sector had already seen withdrawals of ₹12,498 crore in March. Global investors may take time before reassessing their allocation to India, and outflows could persist before any meaningful return of foreign capital.
Uncertainty around geopolitical developments remains a key concern. “There have been news reports that Iran is not willing to meet and negotiate with the US on Wednesday — when the ceasefire ends,” U R Bhat, co-founder and director at Alphaniti said. “This could jeopardise earnings trajectory as oil prices may remain high as long as Strait of Hormuz remains shut — and keep foreign capital at bay.”
In the latter half of March, overseas investors had sold shares worth ₹67,081 crore across 21 sectors, the steepest fortnightly sell-off since the second half of October 2024, when outflows stood at ₹71,502 crore. Pandey said global investors continue to stay cautious, citing relatively high valuations in Indian markets. “The only solace has been strong domestic inflows, despite limited returns over the past 18 months,” he said.
Meanwhile, foreign inflows during the current fortnight were limited to ₹1,340 crore, directed toward sectors such as power, utilities, diversified businesses and a residual ‘Others’ category. This marked the weakest fortnightly inflow since the first half of January 2025.
"Indian equity markets are expected to open on a cautious to mildly negative note on Wednesday (22nd April 2026), tracking weak early signals from GIFT Nifty amid broadly stable yet cautious global cues, as investors await further clarity on geopolitical developments—particularly the ongoing US–Iran talks. GIFT Nifty is currently trading around 24,455, down by 120 points, indicating a gap-down start for domestic benchmark indices. The weakness suggests some profit booking after the recent rally and a generally cautious sentiment across global markets.
In the previous session (21st April 2026), benchmark indices ended on a strong positive note, extending their upward momentum. The Nifty 50 closed above the 24,550 mark, supported by broad-based buying across sectors, improving global sentiment, easing crude oil prices, and optimism surrounding geopolitical developments such as US–Iran talks.
Sectorally, the market witnessed broad-based participation, with most sectoral indices closing in the green. Buying was led by FMCG, banking, and financial stocks, while selective profit booking was seen in a few heavyweight counters. Broader markets also outperformed, indicating improved market breadth and investor participation.
From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 has moved closer to the key resistance zone of 24,550-24,650, where some consolidation or profit booking may emerge. Immediate support is now placed near 24,300–24,200. A sustained move above this resistance band could trigger further upside, whereas failure to hold gains may lead to range-bound or corrective movement.
The Bank Nifty continues to remain in a positive structure, supported by strength in private banking stocks. However, consolidation at higher levels is likely. Resistance is placed near 57,500–57,700, while support is seen around 56,200–56,000.
On the institutional front, as per provisional data for 21st April 2026, FIIs were net sellers with outflows of ₹1,919 crore, while DIIs were net buyers with inflows of ₹2,221 crore, indicating continued support from domestic institutions despite foreign selling pressure. Meanwhile, India VIX cooled off to around 17.53, declining nearly 6%, reflecting easing volatility after the recent spike and indicating some stability in market sentiment.
The market setup for today suggests a gap-down to range-bound opening, driven by weak GIFT Nifty. While the broader trend remains positive, profit booking at higher levels and continued FII selling may cap upside in the near term.
Sustaining above the 24,550–24,650 zone will be crucial for further bullish momentum, while support near 24,200 levels will act as a key cushion. Strong DII buying is expected to continue supporting the market on declines, but short-term consolidation cannot be ruled out,” says Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited.
Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited says, “The market during this highly volatile and uncertain phase is proving the importance of remaining invested. This month, so far, Nifty is up by 10%. The broader market has outperformed with near 15 % returns in BSE 500. The uncanny ability of the market to surprise is evident from this. The surprising up moves in the market may happen from technical factors like short covering which was evident yesterday when market rallied despite subdued institutional activity.
The declaration of indefinite ceasefire by President Trump and Iran’s indifferent and suspect response to it means the uncertainty will continue. Anything can happen any time.
Meanwhile, investors can focus on the significant trends in the market. Good results from financials are lending support to the segment. Capital market-related stocks are doing well in response to good results. Power related stocks are doing well. IT, following the weak commentary from HCL Tech yesterday is again likely to go into correction mode. Watch out for the results of autos and auto ancillaries, which are likely to be good"
Asian equities showed a mixed trend on Wednesday, taking cues from the previous session’s gains on Wall Street, where optimism around possible renewed dialogue between the United States and Iran helped ease oil prices.
Brent crude slipped marginally by 0.2% but continued to trade above $98 per barrel, while US benchmark crude declined 0.4% to $89.29. Softer oil prices tend to reduce operating costs for businesses across sectors. US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran would be extended at Pakistan’s request, as Washington awaits a “unified proposal” from Tehran, even as the naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place.
Among regional markets, Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 0.5% to 59,653.56, while South Korea’s Kospi edged down 0.2% to 6,374.46. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.9% to 8,866.20. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 1.3% to 26,137.59, whereas China’s Shanghai Composite posted a marginal gain of 0.1% to 4,090.24. Taiwan’s Taiex index rose 1.1%.
The gains on Wall Street on Tuesday were driven by indications that diplomatic backchannel efforts are underway to facilitate fresh negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The S&P 500 climbed 1.2% to close at 6,967.38, remaining just 0.2% below its record high set in January. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to 48,535.99, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 2% to 23,639.08.
In early Wednesday trading, US crude edged up slightly to $91.29 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 48 cents to $95.27, recovering modestly after a 4.6% drop in the previous session. Although prices remain well above the roughly $70 levels seen before the conflict began in late February, they are still significantly below the peak of $119.
Foreign investors pulled out equities worth ₹49,481 crore during the first half of April, with financial services once again bearing the brunt of the outflows for the third straight fortnight. That said, the pace of selling showed signs of easing in the latter part of the period.
Roughly 40% of the total outflows between April 1 and 15 came from the financial services space, which saw withdrawals of ₹19,152 crore. This follows heavy selling of more than ₹60,000 crore in the same sector in March, marking the highest level since 2012. U R Bhat, co-founder and director at Alphaniti, noted that the sector’s significant weight in the benchmark Nifty means that broad-based selling typically results in a higher share of foreign exits from banking and financial stocks.
Selling pressure intensified after the onset of the US-Iran conflict on February 28, with banking, financial services and insurance stocks absorbing most of the impact. However, sentiment appeared to stabilise later. “Selling pressure has eased after the first-half of April, as a ceasefire and the possibility of a deal signalled that peak anxiety may be behind us,” Pankaj Pandey, head of retail research at ICICI Securities told ET.
After a phase of weak performance, the country’s leading private sector banks are now trading at valuations that are either below or close to their long-term averages, making them appealing from an investment standpoint, according to DSP Mutual Fund. The price-to-book ratio, a widely tracked valuation metric, for three of the four major lenders—HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank—currently lies in the range of 1.8 to 2 times, which is lower than their respective 10-year averages. In contrast, ICICI Bank’s ratio stands at around 2.6 times, broadly in line with its historical average.
DSP noted that even without factoring in any potential re-rating, these large private banks already offer a compelling opportunity at present levels. It added that any further correction in prices would only enhance their attractiveness for investors.
The rupee weakened by 28 paise to settle at 93.44 against the US dollar on Tuesday, pressured by a firm greenback and fluctuations in crude oil prices amid lingering uncertainty over peace talks in West Asia.
Despite gains in domestic equity markets, the local currency did not find support. Forex analysts noted that the Reserve Bank’s recent move to relax restrictions on speculative activity in non-deliverable forward markets also weighed on the rupee.
On Monday, the central bank partially rolled back directives issued on April 1 to curb excessive speculation. Earlier, banks were required to limit their net open positions in non-deliverable forward markets to $100 million by April 10.
Under the revised framework, authorised dealers can once again offer non-deliverable rupee derivative contracts to both resident and non-resident participants, subject to certain restrictions on related-party transactions. However, the $100 million cap on net open positions continues to remain in place.
Indian equity benchmarks advanced on Tuesday, mirroring gains in global markets, as traders trimmed bearish positions ahead of the second round of US-Iran negotiations. The development comes with the two-week ceasefire between the two countries nearing its end on Wednesday.
The NSE Nifty climbed 211 points, or 0.9 per cent, to settle at 24,576, while the BSE Sensex rose 753 points, or 1 per cent, to close at 79,273. Market sentiment was aided by short covering and easing selling pressure from foreign investors.
“There has been short covering by traders because of increased hopes of the de-escalation of the conflict, and a moderation in the intensity of FPI selling in recent sessions,” said Pankaj Pandey, head of fundamental research at ICICI Direct.
