Middle East Conflict Pressures IPO Candidates to Get Deals Done

(Bloomberg) -- Companies planning IPOs are weighing how to ride out the volatility set off by events in the Middle East over the weekend, with bankers looking for ways to finish the job on deals nearing completion. European defense technology company Vincorion and US-listed Medtronic Plc’s diabetes device unit MiniMed Group Inc. are expected to stick to their near-term initial public offering plans, people familiar with the matter have said. Firms with less advanced processes will have their feet hovering over the brakes, as the US and Israel’s operation in Iran plays out. The sudden change in market sentiment risks upsetting what was set to be a boom year for IPOs, even before the potential mega-listings from SpaceX and artificial intelligence giants are in the picture. It also evokes memories of last year, when the IPO market all but shut down in April in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement. “Investors are digesting the events over the weekend,” Kevin Foley, head of global capital markets at JPMorgan & Chase Co., said in emailed comments from the lender’s Global Leveraged Finance Conference in Miami. “The hope is that things don’t escalate further.” “It’s too early to say how this evolves, but the markets are still generally open for business,” Foley said. The conflict has even added to the investment case for military suppliers. Vincorion, which supplies Raytheon Co.’s Patriot missile system, is set to start formally marketing its Frankfurt IPO this week and is considering an accelerated timetable for the offering, Bloomberg News reported. “For IPOs to come to market, it’s really going to be a question of sector exposure,” Antoine Noblot, head of Northern Europe, Middle East and Africa equity capital markets at BNP Paribas SA said. “It’s also going to be a matter of whether you have a deal where the foundations have been laid so you can be in and out of the market very quickly.” Arms maker CSG NV showed how this can work with its January IPO in Amsterdam. The deal was marketed at a fixed price, banks conducted extensive investor education and the firm shored up the offering with €900 million worth of cornerstone investors. Though IPO volume has been stuck below the records set in the pandemic era, listings last year provided optimism with the most activity globally since 2022, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Asia has already seen a burst of fundraising, with Hong Kong listings fetching the highest volume for any January on record, the data show. Still, the only sizable IPO trading Monday, Brookfield-backed Indian renewable energy firm Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions Ltd., saw shares tumble 18% in its Mumbai debut. The US IPO market, typically among the world’s busiest, was flashing warning signs before the conflict. Broker Clear Street Group Inc. and Blackstone Inc.-backed Liftoff Mobile Inc. both withdrew their listings amid a sharp selloff in software and financial-sector stocks driven by AI fears. Though Liftoff refiled confidentially days later, the pause — and poor performance of recent listings such as Generate Biomedicines Inc., which closed below its IPO price in its debut Friday — left some in the market rattled. “With recent IPOs not doing particularly well and the equity market now not trading well, the IPO window in the near-term is basically closed for most companies,” said David Erickson, an adjunct associate professor of business at Columbia Business School and a former co-head of global equity capital markets at Barclays Plc. MiniMed’s IPO is oversubscribed and on track to price on Thursday, people familiar with the matter have said. The arm of a listed company may be an easier sell to investors than something unproven. Still, if the Middle East hostilities drag on, few listings can escape that gravitational pull. “If the current Iran conflict goes from days to weeks, it could be months before the IPO market returns,” Erickson said. More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com