A new report examines how fixed deposits (FDs), life annuities, systematic withdrawal plans (SWPs) and an aggressive, equity-biased approach, can impact a retirement corpus.
Is Rs 1 Crore Still Enough to Retire? Here's How Long It Lasts Depending On Where You Invest
A lot of investors focus on accumulating at least Rs 1 crore for their retirement years, hoping that it would provide financial security and cover living expenses. However, simply reaching this milestone may not be enough, as factors like inflation, longevity and market volatility can hurt the corpus over time.
This has been revealed in a new report published by OmniScience Capital, which provides a detailed comparison of different retirement strategies. The report, titled ‘The Science of Retirement Planning: Navigating Hidden Risks in a Long Retirement', examines fixed deposits (FDs), life annuities, systematic withdrawal plans (SWPs) and an aggressive, equity-biased approach.
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It uses these methods to test each against a simulated retirement span of 60–100 years. The simulation incorporates factors such as inflation, longevity and market volatility to evaluate whether a Rs 1 crore corpus is enough to last for the required period.
Options For Investors
The report highlights that investors can choose from FDs, SWPs, annuity or other options, but each come with their own risks. While FDs fail to beat inflation, life annuity may provide lifetime income continuity. However, because payouts remain fixed in annuity, purchasing power erosion could result in deficits.
On the other hand, SWPs offer growth potential but are vulnerable to sequence-of-returns risk. While FDs face depletion risk by the age of 75, SWP approach could face depletion risk by the early-80s, the report explained.
In contrast, an aggressive equity-biased strategy could avoid depletion and generate growing surpluses, it argues, labelling this strategy as ‘ScientificPay'.
How Much Corpus Is Needed For Different Options?
After analysing inflation, longevity and other critical factors, the report also estimated the breakeven corpus required for different retirement strategies. These are based on an investor's current annual expenses, which has been assumed as Rs 6 lakh in the report.
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It stated that fixed deposits and life annuities require roughly 40 times annual expenses to maintain financial security. Mutual fund SWPs perform better and need around 30 times annual expenses, but they remain exposed to market sequence risks.
In contrast, the recommended ScientificPay strategy requires only about 20 times annual expenses to achieve similar or better outcomes.
What is ScientificPay?
According to the report, ScientificPay is an equity-biased retirement strategy with a 75:25 equity-to-debt allocation. To be clear, this allocation is flexible and focuses on dynamic assets. The equity portion aims for long-term growth to preserve purchasing power, while the debt portion provides stability during market downturns.
“The debt bucket is primarily used to meet income needs during market stress, reducing the need to liquidate equities at unfavourable valuations and allow the growth component to compound over time. Conversely, when valuations are attractive and opportunities compelling, the portfolio may increase its equity allocation to capture long-term upside,” it said.
ScientificPay method sets annual payouts at 6% of portfolio value, adjusting with market performance. In this case, the withdrawals come from dividends, interest, gains or capital.
The report also warned that given the portfolio's equity exposure, investors should brace for payout fluctuations, especially in the first 3 to 5 years.