Varun Beverages shares extend 2025 losing streak; time to sell?

Shares of Varun Beverages have extended losses from 2025 to the current year. The multibagger stock, which closed 23.14% lower last year, are down 8% in 2026. Analysts have attributed competitive pressure from Reliance-owned Campa Cola, the potential initial public offering (IPO) of Coca-Cola Beverages India business and high operating costs behind weakness in the stock. According to a report, between January and September 2025, the combined market share of the Coca Cola and PepsiCo duopoly fell from 93% to approximately 85%. Emerging player Campa Cola and regional disruptor such as Lahori Zeera, have captured a combined 15% share of the market in record time. Shares of the Pepsico bottler are in a short term and long-term downtrend with the FMCG share trading lower than the 5 day, 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 50 day, 150 day and 200 day moving averages. Elara Capital has lowered its price target to Rs 535 from Rs 587 post Varun Beverages Q4 earnings. The brokerage appears bearish due to lower-than-expected India business performance and downside risk of margin contraction in the India business. However, the management reiterated double-digit volume growth guidance for the India business in CY26, owing to strong Summer season expectations, new product launches, and favourable base. "We reduce our CY26E/CY27E EPS by 0.5% and 3.5%, respectively , led by a cut in EBITDA margin by 81 bp in CY26E and 94bp in CY27E," said Elara Capital. Brokerage JM Financial assigned a price target of Rs 550 on the Varun Beverages stock with a buy call. However, it has lowered its price target to Rs 550 from Rs 570 earlier. "With a likely uptick in volumes, utilisation and fixed cost absorption should improve and support margins in CY26E. We have cut earnings estimates by 3-4% for CY26/27E to factor in lower India realisations," said JM Financial. It cites adverse season/irrational competitive activity in India business as key risk. In the current session, Varun Beverages stock was trading 0.31% lower at Rs 454.90 against the previous close of Rs 456.30. A total of 0.28 lakh shares of the firm changed hands, amounting to a turnover of Rs 1.26 crore. Market cap of the firm stood at Rs 1.54 lakh crore. About Varun Beverages Varun Beverages is a beverage company. It operates franchisee of PepsiCo. The company produces and distributes a range of carbonated soft drinks (CSDs), as well as a large selection of non-carbonated beverages (NCBs), including packaged drinking water sold under trademarks owned by PepsiCo.