Stock Market Today Highlights: Sensex ends over 850 points down; Nifty50 below 24,200 as oil prices rise

The Indian rupee continued its downward trend for a fourth straight session on Thursday, slipping 33 paise to close provisionally at 94.11 against the US dollar. During the day, it crossed the 94-mark for the second time this month, pressured by rising crude oil prices and uncertainty surrounding peace negotiations in West Asia.

Currency traders said persistent outflows from domestic equities, along with sustained foreign fund withdrawals and stronger global demand for the US dollar, further weakened the local unit. Over the past week, the rupee has declined by more than 1 per cent.

In the interbank forex market, the currency opened at 94.03 and moved between an intraday high of 93.98 and a low of 94.17 before ending the session at 94.11, marking a drop of 33 paise from its previous close.

On Wednesday, the rupee had already fallen 34 paise to settle at 93.78, extending its losing streak. Over the last four trading sessions, it has depreciated by 120 paise, or nearly 1.3 per cent, from its April 17 closing level of 92.91.

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited says, “With excessive speculation in the currency markets curbed by RBI’s actions, rupee is likely to move in tandem with fundamentals. The fundamental factor behind rupee’s weakness is the rising current account deficit caused by high crude prices and the sustained FPI outflows from India. So long as these factors remain the same rupee will remain weak and if crude price rises again due to escalation of the conflict, rupee will depreciate further. The low of Rs 93.50 to the dollar reached on March 30 is unlikely to be reached in the near-term since currency speculation is under check. Rupee will move inversely in tune with crude prices. Currently depreciation stands the risk of getting aggravated if FPIs turn big sellers."

According to a latest Deutsche Bank AG report, in FY27, risks to inflation and growth have already increased due to potentially higher oil prices, as a result of the ongoing conflict in Middle East. Despite efforts aimed at de-escalation, global oil prices continue to hover close to USD 100/barrel. We have factored 10% hike in domestic pump prices of petroleum products in May, which has pushed up our CPI inflation estimate for FY27 to 4.9% (RBI at 4.6%). Then there are additional risks arising from a potential sub-normal monsoon in 2026. The IMD released its provisional forecast for 2026 summer monsoon on 15th April. Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. Further, the IMD highlights that the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggests the development of El Niño conditions during the SW Monsoon season.

What will be the likely impact of El Nino on growth?

Historically, El Niño conditions have generally led to a poor monsoon outcome in India, though not necessarily resulting in outright droughts (defined as cumulative rainfall being 10% below LPA). In fact, as the IMD has pointed out, during 34% of El Niño years, monsoon season rainfall in India was normal or above normal. There are many years when monsoon rains have been late to arrive but have picked up subsequently to offset the negative impact. Indeed, there have been many instances in the past of a strong catch-up during the course of the monsoon season (June-September). There is a limit to the catch-up, however. Typically, if the initial rainfall is 25% or more below LPA in June, there is a high likelihood of a poor monsoon.

Normal cumulative rainfall is a necessary but not sufficient condition for ensuring healthy agricultural production. The temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall is equally important in this regard. The spatial distribution as per the IMD, suggests that the below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many parts of the country except some areas over Northeast, Northwest and South Peninsular, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely. A likely poor summer monsoon this year will affect rural India for sure.

Shares of Adani Power continued their upward momentum for the 15th straight session on Thursday, having ended in positive territory on each trading day in April so far. The stock has surged over 44 per cent during this period, driven by heatwave conditions across the country and expectations among analysts that temperatures could rise further due to El Niño, boosting prospects of higher electricity demand.

During the day, the stock edged up to an intraday high of Rs 217.25 on the National Stock Exchange of India before giving up some of its gains. The rally through April has added nearly Rs 1.3 lakh crore to the company’s market capitalisation, which now stands at Rs 4.19 lakh crore.

Shares of Trent declined around 4 per cent to Rs 4,252 on the National Stock Exchange of India on Thursday, even as the company reported a solid set of results for the fourth quarter.

For the quarter ended March 31, 2026, the retailer recorded a 26 per cent year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 400 crore, compared with Rs 318 crore in the same period last year. Revenue from operations also grew 19 per cent to Rs 5,028 crore, up from Rs 4,216 crore a year earlier.

Operating performance showed a stronger uptick, with EBITDA increasing 44 per cent to Rs 653 crore during the quarter. For the full financial year FY26, EBITDA climbed 25 per cent to Rs 2,702 crore. Margins expanded to 18.4 per cent, exceeding expectations of 16.8 per cent.

HSBC has lowered its stance on Indian equities to “underweight” from “neutral,” marking its second downgrade in under a month, as rising oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict are seen posing risks to the sustainability of corporate earnings recovery.

The brokerage noted that Brent crude has surged 42 per cent since the conflict began in late February and is now trading above $100 per barrel. This sharp increase is adding to inflationary pressures and raising concerns about growth in India, the world’s third-largest oil importer.

“India now looks less attractive than North East Asian peers in the current macro setting,” HSBC said in a note on Thursday according to a Reuters report. It pointed out that the benchmark Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex have declined 6.7 per cent and 7.9 per cent so far this year, placing them among the weaker-performing markets globally.

HSBC expects supply conditions in oil and gas markets to remain tight through much of the June and September quarters. In this environment, it anticipates that consensus earnings growth forecasts for 2026, currently pegged at 16 per cent year-on-year, could be revised downward. A 20 per cent rise in crude prices, it estimates, may reduce earnings growth by about 1.5 percentage points.

The firm added that although valuations in domestic equities have corrected from earlier highs, they could again appear stretched if earnings estimates are lowered.

It also highlighted concerns among foreign investors, including the risk of rupee depreciation if oil prices stay elevated, alongside worries about the impact of artificial intelligence on India’s software services sector.

Foreign portfolio investors have already sold $18.5 billion worth of Indian equities in 2026, following net outflows of $18.9 billion last year.

While domestic inflows, particularly through systematic investment plans, continue to provide support, HSBC said a revival in foreign participation may be necessary, especially as initial public offering activity is expected to pick up after a typically weak first quarter.

The brokerage added that opportunities still exist in select areas such as private sector banks, base metals and healthcare, though the broader investment case for Indian equities has weakened.

Shares of Billionbrains Garage Ventures, which operates the Groww platform, continued their upward momentum on Thursday, climbing more than 2 per cent to touch an intraday high of Rs 222.80. The stock has advanced about 14 per cent over the past three trading sessions, following the release of its March quarter results earlier this week.

For the fourth quarter, the company posted a sharp 122 per cent year-on-year jump in consolidated net profit to Rs 686 crore. Revenue from operations also saw strong growth, rising 87 per cent compared to the same period last year to reach Rs 1,505 crore.

Operating performance showed significant improvement, with EBITDA surging 142 per cent year-on-year to Rs 939 crore, reflecting a notable expansion in margins. The gains in profitability were supported by revenue growing at a faster pace than largely fixed expenses, underscoring operating leverage across its business segments.

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited says, “With total uncertainty becoming the new normal there is no clarity on the near-term direction of the market. With the duration of the war going beyond everyone’s initial expectations and the price of Brent crude bouncing back to $103 there is increasing risk to global growth in general and higher risk to India’s macros in particular. If Brent crude remains at an average of $100 for many months India’s growth and corporate earnings will take a hit. The market has not discounted this yet.

The US being a net energy exporter is not impacted by the energy crisis. Corporate earnings in US will continue to be strong. That’s why the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are hitting new record highs. The story will turn out to be different for energy importers like India if Hormuz remains shut for long.

A significant trend in the Indian market is the outperformance of the broader market where there is no significant pressure of FII selling. In fact FIIs are buying many stocks in the mid and smallcap segments. Therefore, this outperformance of the broader market is likely to continue. There will be plenty of stock-specific action in response to results."

“Indian equity markets are expected to open on a weak to negative note on Thursday (23rd April 2026), tracking sharp weakness in GIFT Nifty and cautious global cues. GIFT Nifty is currently trading around 24,200, down by nearly 160 points, indicating a gap-down start for domestic benchmark indices. The decline reflects profit booking after the recent rally, continued foreign institutional selling, and cautious sentiment amid ongoing geopolitical developments, particularly the US–Iran talks, along with pre-earnings nervousness across global market.

In the previous session (22nd April 2026), benchmark indices witnessed volatility and ended on a weaker note after failing to sustain higher levels. The Nifty slipped below the 24,400 mark during the session, while selling pressure was visible in banking and financial stocks following their recent outperformance. Broader markets showed relatively better resilience, indicating selective participation despite weakness in frontline indices.

Sectorally, banking and financial stocks bore the brunt of selling pressure, largely due to their strong rally in recent sessions and high institutional ownership. IT stocks also remained weak, tracking subdued global cues and uncertainty in overseas markets. FMCG, Energy and other defensive sectors showed relative resilience. Broader markets remained mixed but comparatively less impacted than large-cap stocks.

From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 continues to face resistance in the 24,400–24,500 zone, where profit booking has emerged. Immediate support is now placed near 24,100–24,000. A sustained move above this resistance band could revive bullish momentum, while failure to hold support may lead to further corrective or range-bound movement in the near term.

The Bank Nifty remains structurally positive but is showing signs of consolidation at higher levels. Resistance is placed near 57,000–57,200, while support is seen around 56,200–56,000. Continued strength in private banking stocks will be crucial for further directional move.

On the institutional front, 22nd April 2026 saw a relatively rare occurrence where both Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net sellers in the cash segment, booking profits after the recent market rally. DIIs recorded outflows of approximately ₹1,048 crore, and DIIs recorded outflows of approximately ₹2,078 crore. Reflecting a cautious domestic stance. Meanwhile, India VIX is currently trading around 18.30, up by +4.38%, indicating a rise in market volatility and growing caution among investors. The uptick in VIX suggests increasing nervousness in the near term, likely due to weak global cues, institutional selling, and uncertainty around key geopolitical developments.

The overall market setup for today suggests a gap-down opening followed by a range-bound to mildly negative trading session. Weak GIFT Nifty, combined with persistent FII selling, DII profit booking, rising volatility (India VIX), and global uncertainties, may weigh on sentiment. While the broader trend remains positive, short-term consolidation is likely, with strong support expected near lower levels and limited upside unless fresh positive triggers emerge,” says Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited.

Technology stocks came under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday, dragging the broader market lower after HCL Technologies reported weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results and issued a muted outlook. The stock plunged nearly 11 per cent, marking its steepest single-day decline in over a decade and reigniting concerns about the potential disruption from artificial intelligence across the sector.

The Nifty IT dropped 3.9 per cent, significantly underperforming the benchmark Nifty 50, which slipped 0.8 per cent. Shares of Persistent Systems, Coforge, Infosys, LTIMindtree and Mphasis declined between 3 per cent and 5 per cent.

“The sell-off was triggered by HCL Technologies’ weak Q4 performance and subdued guidance, but the broader driver remains poor demand visibility across the sector,” said Harsh Thakkar, research analyst at Samco Securities. “Slower discretionary spending, delayed deal conversions, and limited near-term AI monetisation are weighing on growth expectations.”

The sharp drop in HCL’s stock stood out during the earnings season, especially as results from Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro and Tech Mahindra have held up relatively well. According to Sushovon Nayak, research analyst at Anand Rathi Institutional Equities, the miss in HCL’s performance was largely driven by client-specific challenges, particularly in the telecom segment.

“Tech Mahindra, which derives nearly a third of its revenues from telecom, reported a relatively strong performance,” he said. “The focus now shifts to Infosys’ earnings for further cues.”

Valuation concerns also added to the pressure on HCL’s stock.

IT stocks have been under strain since the start of 2026, as fears that artificial intelligence could disrupt traditional software services intensified following new advancements from Anthropic. These concerns have contributed to a global sell-off in technology shares.

So far this year, the Nifty IT has declined 19.5 per cent, with most of its constituents falling between 8 per cent and 26 per cent. The only exception has been Oracle Financial Services Software, which has gained 5.7 per cent. Over the same period, the Nifty 50 has dropped 6.8 per cent.

Minutes from the April meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) show that members were sharply focused on potential risks to economic growth arising from the West Asia conflict, even as they expressed confidence in the strength of India’s macroeconomic fundamentals. This combination of caution and confidence ultimately led to a unanimous decision to keep interest rates unchanged.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra highlighted the emerging challenges, pointing out that “supply chain disruptions, that may take longer to subside fully and restore the logistics network, pose downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation.”

He also flagged broader concerns, stating that “there are risks skewed to the downside from global and weather-related uncertainties” and warning that “if the conflict remains unresolved for a long duration, it can make the task of central banks arduous in their endeavour to rein in inflation expectations while minimising growth sacrifice.”

At the same time, he emphasized the economy’s resilience, noting that “the Indian economy is on a much stronger footing at the current juncture than at any time before to withstand these shocks.” He added that the outlook “remains cautiously positive,” with “underlying inflation pressures… contained.”