SpaceX IPO: Solid Bet At High Price Tag? Aswath Damodaran Decodes

The upcoming spaceX IPO is going to shake primary markets, according to Indian-American academic and Kerschner Family Chair in Finance Education Aswath Damodaran.

Damodaran delved deep into the potential impact of the Elon Musk-led company's initial public offer and said that it was going to be a "doozy".

"The SpaceX IPO is coming, and it will be a doozy, a futuristic company (spaceships, satellites and AI), a founder who will keep things interesting (Musk) and a price tag that may make it the most highly priced IPO of all time," he stated in his post.

The academic said he has attempted to value the company by mapping out a growth storyline for its three key businesses— Starlink, xAI, and Launch—with the amount of information he could obtain about their financials.

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According to Damodaran, the Launch division is positioned as a dominant industry player, capturing 70% of a projected $100 billion market. With expected revenues of $70 billion and a 40% operating margin, it remains the backbone of the empire, though its capital efficiency (sales to capital) is expected to "normalise from 4 in the late 2020s to 2 by 2035".

Starlink is forecasted to generate staggering $120 billion in revenue by 2036. By capturing 75% of the satellite broadband niche—which itself represents 10% of the massive $1.6 trillion global broadband market—Starlink will be able to achieve a margin of 60% by 2036, as per his analysis.

Similarly, the xAI segment is poised to reach $80 billion in revenue with a healthy 45% margin by 2036, by focusing on subscriptions rather than enterprise use, as per Damodaran.

"My base case valuation, flawed definitely but setting the construct for a revisit, delivers a value of $1.22 trillion for SpaceX, astonishing for company with $16 billion in revenues (supposedly) in 2025," he remarked.

He added that while it is reasonable to argue that IPOs should be priced and not valued, he pointed out that the same uncertainties will come up in the pricing.

"Bankers, analysts and investors price IPOs, rather than value them, and you may reasonably argue that you should price SpaceX, not value it. That is true, but you will still face the same uncertainties in the pricing," the academic stated.