Reliance Industries Ltd is heading into a crucial Q4 earnings week after its stock fell 15% from its peak, erasing about Rs 3.37 lakh crore in market value. The decline has also impacted Mukesh Ambani, whose net worth dropped to $91 billion, causing him to lose his position as Asias richest person to Gautam Adani. Investors are now looking to the upcoming results for a trigger to stabilize the stock.

Reliance Industries shares down over 15% from peak. Can Q4 results, Jio IPO turn things around?

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is facing a pivotal week as it prepares to report Q4 earnings, with the stock reeling from a 15% correction from its 52-week peak. The sharp sell-off has wiped out Rs 3.37 lakh crore in market capitalization and cost billionaire Mukesh Ambani his crown as Asia's richest person, as the market looks for a catalyst to halt the decline.

Shares of India’s largest listed company by market capitalization have retreated to Rs 18.4 lakh crore from their 52-week high of Rs 1,611, reached on January 5, 2026. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index reflects the sentiment: Mukesh Ambani has seen his net worth fall to $91 billion, trailing Gautam Adani’s $95.4 billion after a $16.7 billion loss in 2026.

With the company set to announce quarterly earnings and recommend a dividend post-market hours on Friday, the market is bracing for clarity on both margins and Ambani’s ambitious corporate roadmap.

JM Financial points to sustained foreign institutional selling as a key driver of the decline. FII holding in Reliance has fallen to 18.67% in March 2026, down sharply from a peak of 28.3% in March 2021. The brokerage maintains its Buy rating with a target price of Rs 1,730, arguing that "share price adequately factors concern around near-term weakness in retail business EBITDA growth on account of ramp-up in the quick commerce business." It does not, however, believe the stock is pricing in the "15-16% EBITDA-compounding story in Digital business over the next 2-3 years driven by 10-11% ARPU CAGR," and expects "14-16% EPS CAGR for RIL over the next 3-5 years."

On the earnings front, Nomura estimates Q4 consolidated EBITDA of Rs 44,500 crore, down roughly 3% quarter-on-quarter, with the O2C and retail segments expected to soften while telecom holds steady. The O2C business faces a cluster of headwinds: high crude premiums, elevated freight and insurance costs, higher LPG output requirements under government guidance, fuel retailing losses, and diversion of KG gas to other sectors. Nomura estimates O2C EBITDA will decline 9% quarter-on-quarter, though it remains broadly flat year-on-year.

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Also Read | JPMorgan finds Reliance Industries share valuation comfortable but flags O2C as uncertain spot

JP Morgan's Sanjay Mookim argues the market is mispricing the O2C picture. "The RIL stock has given up recent outperformance on uncertainty related to near-term O2C margins," he wrote, but adds that "even as supply chains normalize, both refining and petchem margins for Reliance should turn out higher than earlier assumed."

The brokerage notes that diesel cracks have risen sharply, with calculated GRMs for Reliance up close to $40–50 per barrel. Realised margins will be dampened by crude premiums, shipping costs, export duty changes, and price volatility but the medium-term picture is more constructive. On refining, demand should be supported by inventory restocking and near-term capacity shutdowns in the Middle East. On petrochemicals, Reliance's ethane and off-gas based crackers benefit from higher crude, supply disruptions provide near-term support, and a tighter cotton outlook could lift polyester chain margins.

JPMorgan flags the earnings sensitivity: every $1 per barrel increase in GRM moves RIL's consolidated FY27 EBITDA and EPS by 2% and 5% respectively. Every $100 per metric tonne increase in polyester chain or ethane cracking margins has a 2–3% impact on FY27 EPS. The brokerage maintains its Overweight rating with a March 2027 price target of Rs 1,675.

It also notes that RIL's holding company discount has widened to around 20%, and that the stock could benefit from improved revenue and EBITDA growth in Retail during the March quarter, or better pricing across other businesses. With an EBITDA run rate of around $20 billion per year and capital expenditure cycles moderating, JPMorgan expects Reliance to move into positive free cash flow, consistent with management's guidance of keeping net debt to EBITDA below 1x.

Jio IPO: catalyst or complication?

The other major variable is the Jio IPO. Reliance is likely to file draft papers for the offering in May, incorporating full-year FY26 financials, after an earlier March deadline was pushed back due to broader market weakness linked to geopolitical tensions. Investment banks have valued Jio Platforms at close to $180 billion, with the IPO expected to raise around $4 billion depending on final pricing and stake size.

JM Financial calls the IPO one of the key near-term triggers, alongside a likely telecom tariff hike that it expects to follow the listing.

Also Read | Reliance Jio IPO delayed? India's largest public offer has some good news in May

CLSA, however, raises a more nuanced point. It acknowledges that an IPO would give investors the option to buy Jio separately, which could introduce a holding company discount on Reliance's 67% stake. But it argues this risk may be overstated. If Reliance sells just 2.5% in the IPO, it would leave Jio with one of the lowest free-floats of any listed subsidiary in India. CLSA draws a parallel with Hindustan Zinc, which trades at a notable premium to peers despite an effective free-float of just 6.9%, and argues that "an effective lack of liquidity could very well take Jio's valuation to a notable premium to peers." That premium, it says, may offset any holdco discount impact on Reliance.

CLSA also points to several businesses not currently reflected in sum-of-the-parts valuations including Reliance's FMCG operations, Jio Hotstar, its AI and data centre push, new energy projects, and quick commerce as potential additional drivers of value. It maintains its Outperform rating.

The stock has entered its results week down sharply from its peak, with FII ownership at multi-year lows, near-term O2C margins under pressure, and the Jio IPO timeline still fluid. The bull case rests on a medium-term recovery in refining and petrochemical margins, a digital compounding story the market is not fully pricing in, and an IPO that, if structured as currently indicated, may create more value than it erodes.

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