Lock-Ins On $69 Billion Pre-IPO Shares Set To Expire Soon: What It Means For Markets

Mandatory lock-ins on $69 billion worth of pre-IPO shares across 87 companies are set to expire over the next three months

Mandatory lock-ins on $69 billion worth of pre-IPO shares across 87 companies are set to expire over the next three months, according to Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research. The expiry will make these shares eligible for trading, potentially increasing supply in the market.

Unlock cycle begins

The first tranche of lock-in expiries has already begun. Shares of ICICI Prudential AMC, amounting to about 70 lakh shares or 1% of equity, were unlocked on March 17.

Later this month, KSH International and Gujarat Kidney & Super Speciality will see 4–6% of their equity become tradable. Meanwhile, Gaudium IVF and Women Health will have around 30 lakh shares, or 4% of equity, freed up on March 27.

These shares were subject to shorter lock-in periods of one to three months.

Larger supply from longer lock-ins

A bigger wave of supply is expected from shares with six-month and longer lock-in periods.

Urban Company accounts for the largest chunk, with 94.1 crore shares — nearly 66% of its outstanding equity — becoming eligible for trading from March 17. Similarly, GK Energy (13.1 crore shares, 65%) and Euro Pratik Sales (6.3 crore shares, 62%) will also see a significant portion of shares unlocked.

Not all shares may hit the market

Despite the large quantum of shares becoming eligible for sale, analysts caution that actual selling pressure may be limited.

“The actual supply may be lower as a large part is promoter-held," said Abhilash Pagaria of Nuvama.

Echoing this, Kamraj Singh Negi, MD & CEO – Investment Banking at Pantomath Capital Advisors, noted that a one-way rush by investors to exit immediately after lock-in expiry is unlikely in the current market environment.

Market impact may vary

However, the potential supply overhang could cap near-term upside in some stocks.

Investor behaviour is also likely to depend on stock performance. Several companies nearing lock-in expiry — including Dev Accelerator, GK Energy, and Ivalue Infosolutions — are currently trading below their issue price, which may discourage aggressive selling.

On the other hand, stocks such as ICICI Prudential AMC and Bharat Coking Coal continue to trade at a premium, where some profit-booking cannot be ruled out.

Overall, while the expiry of lock-ins introduces a significant potential supply pipeline, the actual market impact will depend on investor sentiment, stock performance, and broader market conditions.