JPMorgan’s Rajiv Batra cuts Nifty target to 27,000; stays cautiously optimistic on equities

Rajiv Batra, Head of Asia & Co-Head of Global Emerging Markets Equity Strategy at JPMorgan, said the firm has lowered its earnings growth estimate by 2 percentage points, now expecting around 11% growth for CY26 and about 12% for CY27, implying a CAGR of roughly 10.5–11% over the next two years.

Markets may remain volatile in the near term, but the broader trend is still improving, according to Rajiv Batra, Head of Asia & Co-Head of Global Emerging Markets Equity Strategy at JPMorgan.

He believes recent geopolitical tensions and the oil price shock have created uncertainty, but also opened up opportunities for investors.

Batra pointed out that while escalation risks remain, the overall direction of developments has turned more constructive compared to earlier weeks. “Expect choppiness to remain in the market, but that will also give an opportunity to people to buy quality spaces and weakness,” he said.

JPMorgan has, however, turned more cautious on India in the near term. The brokerage has cut its Nifty base case target to 27,000, reflecting the impact of global growth concerns and rising crude prices.

Despite this, Batra maintains a cautiously optimistic stance, supported by India’s ongoing expansion cycle and expectations that inflation pressures may be temporary.

Read Here | Hormuz Strait in focus: Expert flags escalation risks and oil price pressure

On earnings, the outlook has weakened. Batra said the firm had already started the year with conservative estimates, but the oil shock has led to further downgrades across sectors such as consumer, autos, financials, oil marketing companies and logistics. As a result, earnings growth estimates have been trimmed.

“Taking these factors into account, we are reducing our earning growth estimate by 2% which gives 11% earning growth for CY26 and close to around 12% earning growth for CY27,” he noted.

Foreign investors, meanwhile, remain cautious. According to Batra, their concerns are centred around three key issues: the long-term impact of AI on India’s IT sector, the difficulty in sustaining double-digit earnings growth, and a weakening rupee that affects dollar returns. This has kept flows on the sidelines for now.

Read Here | AI-led deflation fears hit IT outlook as long-term earnings visibility weakens: IME Capital

In terms of regional preferences, India continues to be an overweight market for JPMorgan, but China is currently the top pick in Asia due to more attractive valuations and broader exposure to emerging global themes.

On sectors and themes, Batra highlighted energy security as a key long-term trend. He expects increased focus on upstream energy, coal, and renewables, along with growing interest in nuclear energy. Real assets such as commodities are also gaining importance in a more fragmented global environment.

Within India, while the index remains skewed towards downstream energy companies, Batra prefers upstream plays, coal-linked businesses, and renewable energy companies.

He also sees opportunities in select mid- and small-cap stocks aligned with global themes like AI, robotics, and nuclear, where India currently lacks large-cap representation.

For full interview, watch accompanying video

Live stock market updates—follow our blog

Note To Readers

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on CNBCTV18.com are their own and not that of the website or its management. CNBCTV18.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

(Edited by : Unnikrishnan )