Jio IPO timeline: Why Nomura calls it ‘a key share price catalyst’

Mukesh Ambani, in a statement during the Q4 results announcement, said, “I am happy to note that we are advancing steadily towards the listing of Jio Platforms. This will mark a defining milestone in its journey.”

Reports suggest Reliance Industries could file the draft prospectus for Jio’s IPO as early as May, and Nomura believes that event could be a more powerful catalyst for the stock than any quarterly result.

The brokerage maintains a Buy rating on Reliance with a target price of Rs 1,640, implying roughly 23.5% upside from the current price of Rs 1,328.

Jio Q4 report card

Jio’s subscriber base reached 524 million at the end of March 2026, up from 515 million in the previous quarter, as per the report. Revenue for the quarter came in at Rs 32,800 crore, up 11% year-on-year, while EBITDA stood at Rs 18,100 crore, which marks a 14% increase from the year-ago period. EBITDA margins improved slightly to 54.3%, the report said.

Average revenue per user (ARPU) stayed flat at Rs 214 per month compared to the previous quarter, but was up from Rs 206 a year earlier, according to Nomura. Churn remained low at 1.7%.

For the full year FY26, Jio reported revenue of Rs 1,28,900 crore and EBITDA of Rs 69,800 crore. Net income for the year stood at Rs 28,200 crore, the brokerage noted.

5G and broadband gaining traction

The report further noted that Jio’s 5G rollout continued to gain momentum, with the subscriber base reaching 268 million by quarter-end, an addition of 15 million users during the quarter. Total data traffic grew 35% year-on-year, driven by rising 5G adoption and fixed broadband usage.

On the home broadband front, Jio’s total installed base reached approximately 27 million connections, up 2 million from the previous quarter. Its AirFiber service alone accounted for 12.9 million subscribers, with 1.4 million net additions in Q4, Nomura added.

Data consumption per user rose to 42.3 GB per month from 40.7 GB in the previous quarter, reflecting increased usage across both mobile and fixed-line networks, the report stated.

Jio Platforms also growing

Jio Platforms, the parent entity that houses Jio along with digital and technology ventures, reported revenue (excluding Jio) of Rs 4,880 crore in Q4, up 23% year-on-year. EBITDA for the segment rose 56% to Rs 1,290 crore, and net income grew 63% to Rs 620 crore, according to the brokerage.

For the full year, Jio Platforms’ revenue excluding Jio stood at Rs 18,010 crore, up 28%, while EBITDA reached Rs 2,940 crore, the report said.

Why the IPO matters

Nomura’s view is that the potential Jio IPO filing in May could serve as a key re-rating trigger not just for Reliance Industries but for the broader telecom sector.

In its valuation model, Nomura assigns Rs 604 per share to Jio Platforms within Reliance’s overall target price of Rs 1,640.

The brokerage expects Jio to report revenue of Rs 1,46,300 crore in FY27, rising to Rs 1,63,400 crore in FY28. EBITDA is forecast at Rs 80,100 crore and Rs 90,500 crore, respectively, for those years. Net income is projected to grow from Rs 33,000 crore in FY27 to Rs 38,100 crore in FY28, the report added.

Nomura in Jio: Outlook and risks

Nomura expects Jio’s ARPU to rise to Rs 236 per month in FY27 and Rs 246 in FY28, supported by tariff hikes and improved customer mix. The subscriber base is projected to grow to 553 million by FY27 and 575 million by FY28, with EBITDA margins expanding to 55.4% over the next two years, as per the brokerage.

However, the brokerage firm has also flagged a few risks here. Lower-than-expected subscriber growth, delays in tariff increases, and competitive pressures in the telecom space are a few of them. The brokerage firm stated that Jio is well-positioned because of its scale, network quality, and rising data consumption trends.