India’s equity markets could hit new highs before March 2027: ASK Private Wealth's Rajesh Saluja

Indian markets have corrected meaningfully amid global volatility from Trump-era tariffs, oil disruptions and the persistent geopolitical tensions. Co Founder & CEO at ASK Private Wealth Rajesh Saluja believes the worst is behind and that equities are likely on their path to recovery. His expectations are that the Indian markets will hit all-time high before FY27, based on some key shifts playing out already:

Domestic capital is now providing a strong buffer. Mutual fund inflows hit a record Rs 22,000 crore in March even as markets fell sharply. For the first time, domestic ownership of listed companies has crossed foreign institutional investor (FII) ownership (17% versus 14-15%). This, he argues, means India is no longer dependent on the volatile FII/FPI flows.

In an exclusive interview with Moneycontrol, Saluja explains why he sees the current phase more as a temporary reset rather than a structural problem, and where he is finding opportunities: across public markets, IPOs and alternatives.

Edited Excerpts:

How are you reading the current macro set-up and this phase of volatility linked to global factors like Trump tariffs and oil shocks?

These kind of volatilities come from time to time. We have seen global crises, Asian crises — what could have been worse than the global financial crisis when economies were shut, supply chains were disrupted and people died? Yet the recovery was even stronger. Our belief has always been that mankind will find a way out. We should use these disruptions to our advantage and invest when we’re getting valuations that are far more reasonable than before the shock. These are temporary shocks.

A lot of people were worried earlier that the market had turned frothy — high valuations, bulging order books and slow execution, especially in defence and renewables. Has that concern eased?

It’s not frothy at all, as we address the current scenario. The real requirement in India is only now starting to take off. Look at what’s happening in the US — data centres alone have already created a power shortage there. In India, we’re still at just 1.5 gigawatt of data centre capacity; we eventually need 10 gigawatt. Add the EV push, nuclear energy, hospitals, pharma and the manufacturing drive under the PLI scheme. The government simply has no choice but to keep pushing self-sufficiency and ease of doing business. Energy as a whole is going to be a massive space.

So are we still in buy-on-dips mode or already on the path to recovery? And what does the rise in domestic ownership mean?

Public markets have corrected largely. We are already on the path of recovery. Domestic flows are proving extremely strong — March saw a record Rs 22,000 crore come in even while markets were crashing. For the first time, domestic ownership has crossed FII ownership (17% versus 14-15%). We are no longer held ransom to foreign flows.

Once earnings stabilise over the next one or two quarters, the rupee steadies, rates come down and some of the global AI hype cools off, money will come rushing back. India is still badly under-owned globally.

Which sectors in the public markets are you most positive on right now?

Financials remain perennially attractive. I’m quite bullish on automobiles, healthcare and energy. Core economy businesses also look solid. Commodity and cyclical plays are harder to call because they move in cycles. We’ve also just launched our AI Infra & Strategic Fund in the listed space — 60% in AI-related opportunities, 20% defence and 20% precision engineering — focusing on companies that will ride the data centre boom, power demand, cooling systems, cables, EPC work and energy.

How are you looking at the IPO and pre-IPO space after the correction? Has investor appetite taken a hit?

Investors should be wary of investing in secondary transactions and locked-in alternative products under the garb of pre-IPO funds or secondary funds. While this is an evolving space, it can sometimes mask exit pressures or “evergreening” of assets.

Caution is also warranted in private market deals, which are increasingly being distributed widely despite limited financial information. There have been instances of poor outcomes, partly driven by misaligned incentives, including higher commissions.

For family offices and investors in the alternatives space, what is the one theme you would tell them to track closely?

AI — directly or indirectly. And the areas that are connected to this theme, such as data centres, power and the supporting infrastructure. That’s exactly why we built the AI Infra fund in listed markets. Private markets are much riskier — limited information, too much gut feel, and a lot of people get carried away by the word “AI” and make the wrong bets. I genuinely believe the cleanest and best way to play India’s growth and innovation story is still through listed markets.

Any key risks or areas investors should watch closely in the alternatives and private markets space?

Investors should be wary of investing in secondary transactions and locked-in alternative products under the garb of pre-IPO funds or secondary funds. While this is an evolving space, it can sometimes mask exit pressures or “evergreening” of assets. Caution is also warranted in private market deals, which are increasingly being distributed widely despite limited financial information. There have been instances of poor outcomes, partly driven by misaligned incentives, including higher commissions. Overall, while alternatives offer opportunities, disciplined allocation and due diligence are critical.

What’s your broader outlook for wealth management industry in India?

The wealth management industry in India remains significantly under-penetrated. India has approximately 600,000 HNIs, growing at 6 to 7% annually, and around 45,000 ultra-HNIs (with over Rs 50 crore in financial assets). Yet, formal wealth managers collectively serve only a fraction of this base. As wealth creation accelerates, the need for professional, transparent, and well-governed advisory services will grow significantly.

Disclaimer: This reflects expectations and opinions as of the date of preparation, derived from publicly available information and internal analysis. These expectations are forward‑looking in nature and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual outcomes to differ materially. Nothing contained herein should be construed as investment advice or an assurance of future performance. The opinion expressed above are personal views of the author. The views of the author may also differ from the views expressed by any other author of ASK Asset and Wealth Management.