Indian rupee ends nearly unchanged, hemmed in by mixed flows

The Indian rupee ended barely changed on Monday, as usual dollar demand met offsetting inflows, keeping the currency largely rangebound at the start of the week. The rupee moved in a narrow 10-paise band to end at 90.65 against its previous close of 90.6350. The rupee had jumped earlier this month, backed by the optimism from the U.S.-India trade deal, but is back to tracking flow dynamics and external cues. Dollar sales by exporters and foreign portfolio inflows have helped the currency rise 1.5% so far in February. However, that support could weaken. "The rupee is not racing. It is waiting," said Amit Pabari, managing director at FX advisory firm CR Forex. From a technical perspective, the 90.00–90.20 zone remains a key support for USD/INR and a gradual move towards 91.00–91.20 remains possible in the near term, he said. Although foreign investors remain net buyers of Indian equities for the month so far, they pulled out more than $800 million on Friday, underscoring that flows remain choppy. Softer-than-expected U.S. inflation print has bolstered the chances of at least two more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Citi said in a note that the fear of persistent and rapid depreciation of the rupee seems to have been arrested, which should be a positive for equity investors. Some investors are willing to consider rupee out-performance on a relative basis even if there is no absolute appreciation bias, the brokerage said.