Brent may settle near $80 if supply conditions ease: Goldman Sachs

Nikhil Bhandari, Head-India Equity Research at Goldman Sachs, said supply constraints, lower investments and maturing shale output are setting up a new oil investment cycle. He expects prices to remain supported depending on supply disruptions, with investments likely to pick up across shale and offshore projects, alongside opportunities in oil companies and services.

Nikhil Bhandari, Head-India Equity Research at Goldman Sachs, said crude oil prices will depend on how quickly supply disruptions ease, with Brent expected to settle near $80 per barrel if conditions improve. However, he added that prolonged delays in restoring supply routes could push prices higher to the $90–$100 per barrel range by the end of the year.

He said the oil industry may be entering a new investment cycle as supply constraints build up amid geopolitical disruptions. The sector is facing structural supply limits after years of lower spending. “The oil industry entered this shock already underinvested,” he said, noting that reserves, capex and exploration have all declined from earlier peaks.

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

Bhandari pointed to limited future supply additions and maturing shale output as key factors. “We don’t have a lot of long-cycle oil projects,” he said, adding that US shale production is also plateauing after driving growth over the past decade.

Also Read | Old Bridge's Kenneth Andrade prefers metals, pharma, and autos

He also highlighted demand trends, saying the expected peak in oil consumption is shifting further out. This combination is expected to support higher prices and trigger investment. “We do think oil capex needs to return in the sector,” he said.

He said investment will likely start with short-cycle projects such as shale and deepwater, with opportunities across oil producers and service providers. “Oil equities are future instruments… they price forward,” he said, indicating preference for equities and services plays.

Also Read | Power emerges as top bet on AI boom, says Gautam Trivedi; stays away from IT

In India, Bhandari said energy security will remain a focus, with continued investment in transmission and a role for coal alongside renewables.

He also flagged pressure in downstream markets, especially refining and petrochemicals, due to supply disruptions in products such as diesel, jet fuel and naphtha.

Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here