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09 Apr 2026
Bitcoin and Ethereum have outperformed traditional safe-haven assets and major equity indices during the 2026 US-Iran conflict, according to Binance Research's Monthly Market Insights: April 2026 released on Monday.
Binance Research said this highlights crypto’s growing appeal as a diversification option, as it decoupled from traditional risk assets despite disruptions in global trade and energy flows. While geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties remain, this resilience strengthens the foundation for crypto’s continued maturation.
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From the outbreak of the Middle East conflict through Day 32, Bitcoin gained 1% and Ethereum gained 6% (peaking at +14% and +22% respectively), while the S&P 500 fell 8%, semiconductors (SOXX) dropped 12%, and traditionally safe assets gold and silver plunged 13% and 22% respectively.
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"Following an initial bout of risk-off selling, crypto rebounded swiftly, supported by its 24/7 liquidity and steady institutional demand from corporate treasuries, ETFs, and on-chain holders," according to Binance Research.
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“The move also strengthened its “supra-sovereign asset” narrative, particularly as gold and silver declined in tandem, a rare dynamic that underscored crypto’s diversification value and resilience amid geopolitical stress,” Binance Research further said.
In March, the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation edged up 1.8% to US$2.39T, demonstrating relative resilience amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the prolonged US-Iran conflict and subsequent global trade disruptions.
According to Binance Research, the geopolitical crisis disrupted approximately 20% of global oil trade, with Brent up 36% and the VIX peaking at 35. Despite these conditions, total crypto market capitalization rose 1.8% month over month to US$2.39T in March.
According to Binance Research, March 2026 marked a critical inflection point for institutional crypto adoption as BTC spot ETFs recorded $1.2B in net inflows after four consecutive months of outflows
The long-term holder (LTH) supply has been rising since mid-February despite a 46% drawdown from October 2025 all-time highs, signaling institutional accumulation.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) raised $1.56B through its preferred stock STRC in March alone, funding 50% of monthly BTC purchases and triggering copycat strategies across Digital Asset Treasury peers.
According to Binance Research, “The confluence of rising LTH supply since mid-February and March marking the first positive month of spot ETF flows in 2026 (~US$1.2B) amid the drawdown suggests structural accumulation is underway, signaling a market reset in preparation for a new cycle.”
The release further highlighted rapid growth in ERC-8004, an on-chain identity standard for AI agents. Since its Ethereum mainnet launch on January 29, registered agents grew from 337 to over 162,000 across 22 networks in just two months.
In March, BNB Chain leads with 54,467 agents (33.5% market share), Base follows with 38,170 agents (23.5%), and Ethereum accounts for 31,767 agents (19.5%)
"The agent registration boom represents critical infrastructure development, but the sector's next chapter depends on transitioning these identities into productive on-chain economic participants,"said Binance Research.
Total RWA asset value reached approximately US$27.1B, increasing 4% MoM. The government debt sector led growth, adding US$2B in inflows, while the commodities and institutional funds sectors recorded outflows of US$0.9B.
BNB Chain experienced significant expansion, with total RWA value reaching US$3.4B, a 35.8% MoM increase, and U.S. Treasury debt accounts for over 92% of its holdings.
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Looking Ahead
According to the report, the outlook for April hinges on three critical factors: which includes Geopolitical normalization, Global trade resumption, and Liquidity conditions
Geopolitical normalization
Trump's 10-day extended pause offers potential de-escalation (Polymarket prices 18% odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by month-end).
Global trade resumption
Oil market stabilization could rapidly pivot sentiment.
Liquidity conditions
Fed policy trajectory and institutional capital flows.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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