Aye Finance shares to list today: 3 big IPO facts, GMP signals and what to expect at market open

Shares of Aye Finance are set to debut on the Indian bourses – NSE and the BSE today, February 16. After three days of IPO bidding and weeks of anticipation, the stock will now be priced by real market demand. For investors who applied for the IPO and those waiting on the sidelines, the focus shifts to one key factor – how the shares open and sustain through the first few hours of trade. The IPO was open between February 9-11, with allotment finalised on February 12. Let’s take a look at the key details of the issue – Aye Finance IPO: Key details The Rs 1,010 crore issue was structured as a mix of fresh shares worth Rs 710 crore and an offer-for-sale of Rs 300 crore. The price band of the issue was fixed at Rs 122-129 per share, with the final issue price set at the upper end of Rs 129. In the three-day bidding period, the overall issue was subscribed 97%, slightly below full subscription. The Qualified Institutional Buyers category subscribed 1.50 times. However, the Non-Institutional Investor portion saw only 5% subscription, while retail participation stood at 77%. Before the public bidding opened, the company had raised Rs 460.51 crore from anchor investors on February 6. Aye Finance IPO: Grey market trend In the grey market, the share Aye Finance ahead of the listing was trading at Rs 0. This suggests that shares are being quoted at their issue price of Rs 129. Meanwhile, it is important to note that GMP is not an official indicator as it tends to fluctuate based on market sentiment. Aye Finance IPO: Who handled the issue The IPO process was managed by Axis Capital as the book running lead manager, while Kfin Technologies acted as registrar to the issue. Aye Finance IPO: Expert take Deven Choksey research in its IPO note said, “Aye Finance operates in the high-growth MSME lending segment, benefiting from India’s push for financial inclusion and formalization of small businesses. The company boasts strong AUM growth and expanding geographic footprint, although at 5.2% credit cost as of FY25. The ROA/ROE hasn’t been consistent which translate to discounted multiple, unless we’re betting this reverses. The operating model strain with high people churn which can be seen at 65% Attrition (FY25 and similar). That’s a flashing red light in a people-heavy underwriting/collections business. High churn often translates to weaker credit discipline + higher opex + more fraud/operational drift risk. Also there is funding disadvantage for AYE compared to peers due to weaker credit rating.” SBI Securities about this noted, “Aye Finance is a NBFC specialized in lending loans to India’s underserved micro-scale enterprises. The company is shifting its focus towards asset-backed strategy by increasing the mix of mortgage loan which are higher-ticket and longer tenure loans. This is expected to lower credit cost for the company which is currently high at 7% (1HFY26 annualized) compared to its peers. Profit of the company has declined ~40% YoY in 1HFY26 primarily due to sharp rise in impairment cost, NIM compression and higher operating expenses. At the upper price band of Rs 129, the issue is valued at Adj. P/BV of 2.0x on post-issue capital. We would like to monitor the progress of reduction in credit cost with the company’s mortgage-heavy loan mix strategy. Hence, we recommend investors to AVOID the issue and track the company’s performance post listing.”