A Conundrum Only India Must Solve: Growing rich, staying green, and staying true to ourselves

India carries a paradox no other nation has ever faced ever, and importantly at this scale. We must raise per capita income dramatically within a single generation, while also lowering our carbon footprint and doing so as the most populous nation on earth — one sixth of humanity, two thirds of whom are under thirty-five. That single demographic fact embodies both our promise and our pressure. 20-year window to transition to a sustainable system This challenge is not just about economic ambition or political urgency. It is the landscape against which that place-in-the-globe ambition must be realised. Across wide stretches of the country, groundwater tables are sinking at rates that endanger the very farms and industries that sustain livelihoods. In Bihar alone, over fifty million people still rely on arsenic‑tainted water far beyond safe limits, with consequences that include cancer and chronic disease. In our cities, air pollution claims millions of premature lives each year, as particulate levels repeatedly breach standards meant to protect health. Noise too routinely crosses danger thresholds, adding stress and eroding well‑being. These are daily realities, visible in every state and season. Yet, in policy corridors and public debate, climate risk too often becomes a speech line or a hashtag — then fades into the background. Worryingly, there remains an instinct to believe India’s growing economy will protect us from the worst, or to imagine that growth can come first and cleanup later. But science offers a stark message: we have perhaps twenty years to shift decisively to cleaner energy and sustainable systems. Beyond that window, damage compounds faster than adaptation can catch up. Three visions and the criticality of choosing right This makes the stakes of our choices unusually high. One vision for India’s future is to restore our historical share of global GDP, rising from about three percent today to eighteen percent by mid-century — an echo of the position we held before colonisation. That would mean lifting nominal GDP from roughly $3.8 trillion now to over $36 trillion by 2050, requiring average growth close to nine percent for twenty-five years. Another vision, more immediate though still formidable, is to cross into high-income status by global benchmarks, moving from under three thousand dollars per capita to over fourteen thousand. A third, deeply rooted in equity, is to ensure that even the poorest decile of Indians enjoys health, education and living conditions comparable to advanced economies, whether or not national income matches OECD levels. These frame what kind of nation we choose to build. This dilemma deepens when we confront material constraints. For example, India lacks significant reserves of rare minerals essential for batteries, renewables and modern manufacturing that our vast population will demand. The global race to decarbonise has triggered an equally fierce scramble for these resources. To secure them, we must look abroad, yet being the world’s fifth largest economy, our geopolitical weight remains closer to that of a rising mid‑power than a decisive rule‑shaping hard power. Domestically, the policy trade‑offs are stark. We must scale up renewables rapidly, yet protect jobs and communities anchored in coal regions. We need digitalisation and AI to drive productivity and governance, while ensuring skilling and oversight so they do not entrench inequality. Our cities must absorb millions more, yet without resilient design and foresight, urban growth risks worsening floods, heatwaves and pollution — and delivering little more than precarious, crowded living conditions. Demographic dividend? Our demographic window is a singular advantage. Two thirds of Indians are under thirty‑five, creating the largest working‑age cohort we will ever have. But this window will narrow by the 2040s as demographic momentum slows. If we fail to generate enough well‑paid, low‑carbon jobs before then, what should be a dividend could harden into a strain. Growth, sustainability and inclusion cannot be sequenced; they must advance together. Scattered policy — chasing industrial expansion without water security, or building cities without clean power — locks in costs and vulnerabilities that become harder to reverse. Real resilience begins with confronting risk directly, not brushing it aside. Falling water tables, arsenic‑laden groundwater and chronic air pollution already sap health and productivity. Each fraction of warming increases the volatility of rainfall, the danger to coasts and the toll of heat. Deferring environmental action until after growth is not a course we can afford. Growth remains central to realising any vision Yet ambition cannot be abandoned. Without sustained growth, we will not lift incomes, build the infrastructure we need or fund adaptation on the scale required. But the pattern of growth must break from the past. We must urbanise without breaching ecological limits, industrialise without repeating the environmental costs of earlier revolutions, and digitalise without leaving millions excluded. India’s scale and diversity demand real change built on collaborative federalism. Clean energy, resilient cities, water security and skills all take shape in states and districts shaped by local realities. The very nature of our democracy makes this essential: central and state governments must see their visions merge into One India. When national ambition aligns with local innovation and resources follow local priorities, complexity becomes strength. This is more than governance design — it can be the legacy we leave: a shared commitment that hands the next generation an India that is stronger, fairer and true to its values. Much of what lies ahead will demand deeply hyper‑local solutions. Delhi’s air pollution cannot be tackled by the same measures that suit Bengaluru. Water recharge in Rajasthan will not look like it does in Assam. Heat mitigation in Chennai is a different fight from flood resilience in Mumbai. Local data and local institutions must guide these choices. In a country of such scale and contrast, granular adaptation is not a concession to complexity. It is the only path to results that endure. We must also reconsider how we measure success. GDP growth alone misses what truly shapes lives: clean air, safe water, reliable healthcare, decent education and security against climate shocks. A more complete gauge of national welfare would reflect not just the size of our economy, but its fairness and its footprint. Some will call aiming for high growth while cutting emissions and narrowing inequality unrealistic. But standing still brings greater danger: slower growth, deeper shortages and rising social strain. The climate and demographic clocks will not wait. Delay is the costliest risk of all. India cannot follow China’s export‑driven, state‑led industrial surge, nor the West’s resource‑heavy expansion built on outsourcing and aggressive financialisation. We must shape a growth path anchored in our own realities and ethos — where rising per capita income stands alongside environmental stewardship and a deep commitment to social equity. That choice will shape our economic standing and our moral voice in a century defined by climate challenge and inequality. That is our conundrum — and our opportunity. (Dr. Rajiv Kumar is the former Vice Chairman of Niti Aayog and Chairman of the Pahle India Foundation. His latest book published is ‘Everything All At Once: India and the Six Simultaneous Global Transitions’. X: @RajivKumar1) (Srinath Sridharan is a corporate advisor and independent director on corporate boards. He is the author of ‘Family and Dhanda’. X: @ssmumbai.)