$40 billion supply wave begins: From PhysicsWallah to NSDL-Check full February IPO lock-in schedule

A massive wave of share supply is hitting the Indian market this month as pre-listing shareholder lock-ins expire for several high-profile companies. Data analysed by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research indicates that a significant volume of shares will become eligible for trading starting today. This influx includes heavyweights like Lenskart Solutions, National Securities Depository, and Physicswallah. The brokerage firm points out that “Between January 16- April 30, a total of 92 companies are slated to have their pre-listing shareholder lock-ins lifted, amounting to the value of $40 billion.” Understanding the Lock-In Expiry Mechanism A lock-in expiry marks the date when pre-listing shareholders, such as promoters and early investors, are permitted to sell their holdings. These restrictions are designed to stabilise share prices immediately post-listing. Once lifted, the supply of tradable shares can increase, potentially impacting stock prices. However, Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research advises caution against assuming a flood of sales. In their note, the firm states, “The value pertains to the total lock-up opening shares, but it’s important to note that not all of these shares will come for sale as a sizable portion of these shares are also held by Promoter & Group.” While the eligibility to trade opens up, the actual market impact depends on whether these large holders decide to liquidate their positions. NSDL and Aditya Infotech see massive equity unlocking The action kicks off immediately with Lenskart Solutions and Aditya Infotech lock-ins expired on February 4. Nuvama data shows that while Lenskart sees about 2% of its outstanding shares (approximately 41 million shares) opening up, Aditya Infotech faces a much larger volume. Roughly 63% of Aditya Infotech’s equity, translating to nearly 74 million shares, is now free from lock-in restrictions. Tomorrow, February 5, brings an even bigger event for NSDL. The depository giant sees a staggering 75% of its equity becoming tradeable. Nuvama calculates this as approximately 149 million shares entering the market. While not every share will be sold immediately, the sheer percentage of equity becoming free to trade is a key metric Nuvama is tracking closely. PhysicsWallah and Pine Labs lead mid-month expiries Moving into the second week of February, the focus turns to new-age tech and infrastructure names. Billionbrains Garage Ventures sees a 2% equity opening (149 million shares) on February 9. Following closely on February 10 is fintech major Pine Labs, with about 3% of its shares (40 million) becoming tradeable. Edtech unicorn PhysicsWallah has its lock-in expiry on February 12. Nuvama reports that nearly 72 million shares, representing 3% of the company, will be unlocked. On the same day, Emmvee Photovoltaic Power will see 30 million shares (4%) open up. JSW Cement follows on February 13 with a more substantial 15% of its equity, or 209 million shares, becoming eligible for trading. BlueStone Jewellery and Highway Infrastructure: High Percentage Openings The middle of the month brings another cluster of significant expiries on February 16. While Fujiyama Power Systems, Tenneco Clean Air India Ltd. and All Time Plastics see smaller portions of equity unlocking (between 2% and 3%), two names stand out for their volume. Bluestone Jewellery will see a substantial 38% of its shares (58 million) unlocking. Even more significant is Highway Infrastructure where Nuvama data indicates that 54% of the company’s shares (39 million) will have their lock-in lifted. These high percentages suggest that a large portion of the company’s non-promoter holding is becoming liquid at once. Late February watch: Vikram Solar, Patel Retail The month closes with several notable expirations. Capillary Technologies India sees 3 million shares unlock on February 17. By February 23, Vikram Solar will have roughly 29% of its equity (104 million shares) freeing up, alongside Regaal Resources, which sees half its equity (50% or 52 million shares) unlock. Nuvama identifies Patel Retail as another major counter to watch on February 25, with 51% of its shares (17 million) opening up. Finally, Gem Aromatics rounds out the month on February 26 with 18% of its equity (10 million shares) becoming tradeable. As these deadlines pass, the market will see if the unlocked shares convert into actual sell orders. Nuvama’s data sets the timeline, leaving the final outcome to the discretion of the shareholders involved.