Trading Plan: Can bulls propel Nifty 50 beyond 24,100, Bank Nifty towards 58,800?

Given the strengthening technical indicators, subdued oil prices in international markets, and a favourable India VIX, the market may extend its upward journey, with the Nifty 50 potentially eyeing the 24,100-24,200 zone. A convincing move above this range could propel the index towards 24,500. Until then, the 23,800-23,750 zone is expected to act as an immediate and crucial support area. Meanwhile, backed by strong support from most technical indicators, the Bank Nifty is expected to continue outperforming and target 58,500 initially, followed by the 58,800-59,000 zone, while 57,500-57,400 is likely to act as a key support area, according to experts.

On June 24, the Nifty 50 surged 198 points, or 0.83 percent, to 24,022, while the Bank Nifty jumped 967 points, or 1.69 percent, to 58,150. Market breadth slightly favoured the bulls, with about 1,542 shares advancing compared to 1,453 declining shares on the National Stock Exchange.

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

On Wednesday, the benchmark Nifty found firm support near its 20-day EMA and subsequently staged a sharp and meaningful rebound. On the daily chart, the index formed a strong bullish candle, indicating buying interest at lower levels. Importantly, it also managed to reclaim and close above its 50-day EMA, which adds further strength to the positive undertone.

From a momentum perspective, the daily RSI is currently positioned at 56.24 and is trending higher, suggesting improving strength in price action. In addition, the daily MACD remains in bullish territory as it continues to trade above both its zero line and signal line, reinforcing the positive bias.

Going ahead, the 23,800-23,750 zone is expected to act as a strong support base for the index. This range is significant as it represents the confluence of the 20-day EMA, the 50-day EMA, and the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the previous uptrend, making it a key demand zone.

On the upside, the immediate resistance is placed in the 24,170-24,200 range. A decisive and sustained move above the 24,200 mark could trigger a fresh leg of upside momentum, potentially driving the index towards 24,350, followed by the 24,500 level in the near term.

Key Resistance: 24,200, 24,350, 24,500

Key Support: 23,800, 23,750

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips between 24,000 and 24,060, with a stop-loss of 23,900 and a target of 24,350.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

As expected, the Nifty 50 recovered sharply after finding support at the rising trendline on the hourly chart, resulting in a strong rebound that pushed the index back above the 24,000 mark. The index found support at the 20 EMA during the last two trading sessions before moving higher. The hourly RSI remains in a positive crossover, indicating that the underlying strength is intact. Besides, the Nifty has reclaimed both the 20 EMA and 50 EMA on the hourly timeframe, further improving the short-term outlook.

Additionally, the meaningful recovery from the 20 EMA on the daily chart suggests strong buying interest at lower levels, indicating that buyers remain active. On the daily timeframe, the Nifty has formed a Piercing Line candlestick pattern near the 20 EMA support zone, signalling the possibility of a strong rally in the short term.

On the higher side, resistance is seen in the 24,300-24,500 zone, while a sustained move above this range could open the door for further upside. On the lower side, 23,800 is likely to continue acting as a crucial support level.

Key Resistance: 24,300, 24,500

Key Support: 23,800

Strategy: Buy Nifty 24,200 CE of the June 30 expiry at Rs 72, with a stop-loss of Rs 50 and a target of Rs 115.

Vaishali Patel, Deputy Manager - Research- Technical Department at Jainam

The Nifty continues to trade within a well-defined consolidation range and is currently approaching a crucial resistance zone near 24,150-24,250 on the daily chart. The index has staged a strong recovery from the 23,100-23,200 demand area, where buyers repeatedly stepped in to defend lower levels, resulting in a series of higher lows on the daily chart.

The recent upmove has improved the short-term market structure, with the index supported by its key short-term moving averages and momentum indicators turning favourable. A decisive breakout above 24,200 would confirm the formation of a bullish Head and Shoulders pattern on the daily chart and could lead to a fresh directional move towards higher levels. However, failure to overcome this hurdle may result in another phase of consolidation within the prevailing range.

On the momentum front, the RSI has moved above the neutral zone and continues to trend higher, reflecting improving market sentiment. On the lower timeframe, the RSI has shifted from a bearish to a bullish zone, signalling positive momentum at current levels.

Key Resistance: 24,200, 24,300

Key Support: 23,800, 23,650

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 24,120-24,200, with a stop-loss of 23,800 and a target of 24,500.

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

On Wednesday, the banking benchmark, Bank Nifty, registered a decisive breakout from a seven-day consolidation phase on the daily chart, signalling a resumption of upward momentum. Adding further conviction to the breakout, the index formed a strong and sizeable bullish candle during the session, indicating robust buying interest and reinforcing the validity of the breakout.

Over the past couple of weeks, Bank Nifty has consistently outperformed the broader market and frontline indices. This relative strength is also reflected in the Bank Nifty-to-Nifty ratio chart, which has witnessed a breakout from a cup pattern, typically considered a bullish continuation signal. This technical development suggests that Bank Nifty is well-positioned to sustain its outperformance in the near term.

In terms of key levels, the 57,600-57,500 zone is likely to act as an important support area for the index. As long as Bank Nifty holds above the 57,500 mark, the bullish structure remains intact. In such a scenario, the index is expected to continue its upward trajectory and gradually move towards 58,800, followed by 59,500 in the short term.

Key Resistance: 58,800, 59,500

Key Support: 57,600, 57,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures between 58,180 and 58,250, with a stop-loss of 57,800 and a target of 58,950.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Bank Nifty found support at the 200-day moving average (DMA), leading to a strong recovery that helped the index move back above the 58,000 mark. The gains witnessed during the session effectively absorbed the consolidation of the past few days, indicating robust participation from the bulls. Besides, the index has been sustaining above its previous swing high, reflecting improving momentum.

The RSI has also given a positive crossover, suggesting strengthening bullish sentiment. Overall, the trend is likely to remain positive in the short term, with the potential to move towards 59,000 and higher. A move above 59,000 could further strengthen the bullish outlook and pave the way for an extension towards 59,500. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 57,400, below which the positive bias may weaken.

Key Resistance: 59,000, 59,500

Key Support: 57,400

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty 58,700 CE of the June expiry above Rs 166, with a stop-loss of Rs 100 and a target of Rs 250.

Vaishali Patel, Deputy Manager - Research- Technical Department at Jainam

Bank Nifty continues to exhibit strong relative strength and has witnessed a decisive recovery from its March lows. The index has gradually improved its market structure by forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, reflecting sustained buying interest at lower levels.

A key positive development has been the index's ability to reclaim and sustain above its 200-day moving average, which has historically acted as an important trend indicator. The index has entered a brief consolidation phase near its recent highs. Such price action is generally considered healthy, as it allows the market to absorb short-term supply after a sharp advance. Despite some profit booking at higher levels, the index continues to hold above its breakout zone, indicating that buyers remain in control.

Momentum indicators remain supportive of the positive outlook. The daily RSI has moved above the 60 mark, reflecting strengthening momentum and improving market breadth.

Overall, the technical structure remains constructive and suggests that the index is transitioning into a stronger uptrend. As long as Bank Nifty sustains above the 57,400 level, the broader bias is likely to remain positive. A sustained move above Wednesday's high near 58,300 could trigger fresh momentum and pave the way for the next leg of the upmove.

Key Resistance: 58,800, 59,000

Key Support: 57,100, 56,800