Titan to Sky Gold & Diamonds: Which jewellery stocks are poised to gain this Dhanteras?

The festive season has started in India, with consumers rushing to stores to buy gold and other jewelleries. With Dhanteras and Diwali scheduled next week, and the wedding season after that, jewellers are poised to record high sales growth. However, analysts and experts have shown concerns around sales volumes, which are expected to be lower year-on-year (YoY) due to elevated gold prices.

Amidst this backdrop, jewellery majors such as Titan, Kalyan Jewellers, Senco Gold, and Sky Gold & Diamonds, among others are in focus. The key question now is whether the demand momentum seen in October extends further and drives earnings growth for these companies.

Several trends have emerged around jewellery buyers in the last few years, since gold prices have risen significantly. Some of these include a shift towards lighter-weight jewellery, exchanging old ones, and young buyers prioritising lifestyle products over traditional heavy jewelleries.

Netra Deshpande, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan said, “Dhanteras and Diwali are scheduled for November 6 and 8, respectively, in the 3QFY27. Titan reported that demand subsided at the conclusion of Q2 due to the transition of the festive calendar to the December quarter.” The majority of the demand for early weddings and festivals is expected to be captured in the ongoing quarter (October – December), she said.

Bridal jewellery constitutes the single largest segment, accounting for around 50-55% of total gold jewellery consumption during this season. “Auspicious occasions such as Akshaya Tritiya and Diwali (including Dhanteras) are deeply rooted in cultural tradition and are widely believed to bring prosperity when gold is purchased. During these two occasions combined, demand can surge to between 40 to 60 tonnes, reflecting concentrated buying activity over just a few days,” Deshpande said.

Anil R, Senior Research Analyst at Geojit Investments said Titan Co. is their top pick for this year’s festive season. “Its edge comes from a strong wedding and premium jewellery franchise through Tanishq. A rising share of studded jewellery should also support its product mix. The Q2 business update supports this,” he said.

Titan’s jewellery business grew around 21% YoY in Q2FY27, even though part of the festive demand shifted into the December quarter. Plain gold jewellery grew around 20%, while studded jewellery grew in the early 30s. With festive and wedding demand coming through in the December quarter, Titan’s brand strength, premium mix and consistent execution leave it well placed to benefit, he added.

Deshpande said Titan, Kalyan Jewellers, PN Gadgil, Senco Gold, and Sky Gold & Diamonds are some of the players exhibiting the most significant momentum currently.

The small cap option is Sky Gold & Diamonds, as headline numbers show a massive jump driven entirely by robust revenue, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation, and net profit margins.

Its earnings exceeded expectations, supported by strong scale-up, margin expansion and positive cash generation, she said.

Jewellers have seen an increase in sales value due to higher gold prices, but sales volumes remain subdued. Surendra Mehta, Secretary of India Bullion and Jewellers Association, said that sales in October are likely to be 11% lower YoY in terms of volume, according to Moneycontrol.

Listed players are reporting strong revenue growth, but physical volumes are lagging. “Titan is a case in point: jewellery revenue grew 21% in Q2, yet buyer growth was only mid-single digit, while average ticket size rose by double digits,” Geojit’s Anil R, said.

He said consumers are adjusting rather than spending more, and are shifting to lower-grammage and lightweight designs, old-gold exchange and studded products. “That said, organised players continue to benefit from market-share gains, store additions and healthy SSSG. Revenue growth is healthy, but it should not be read as equivalent growth in grammage,” he added.

Mirae Asset’s Deshpande said, “In the second quarter, the average gold price increased by 28% year over year, while the volume of diamond jewellery increased by 7%. The growth in plain gold volume was likely minimal, given that the total revenue went up by approximately 31%. Overall, a ~28% increase in gold prices against ~20% same-store growth indicates a flat or slightly lower number of grams per existing store.”

Geojit Investments expects demand growth to continue in November, primarily as the festive season has shifted into the December quarter, and also because wedding-related purchases are less discretionary.

“High gold prices may lower the grammage bought, but such purchases are rarely postponed…We expect better footfalls and healthy value growth, but volumes are likely to stay subdued as consumers shift to lighter jewellery and old-gold exchange. We would not extrapolate October’s decline into November, but we also do not expect a sharp volume recovery in the near term,” Anil R said.

Deshpande said gold prices have decreased recently, which has added some buying opportunities. Festive and wedding demand will remain more resilient than discretionary purchasing, and listen chains can continue to generate double-digit revenue growth through pricing and market share.