The heavyweight shares of Reliance Industries ( RIL ) have fallen 21% in 2026 so far, wiping off Rs 4 lakh crore from the market value of India’s most valuable company, but analysts advise caution for investors planning to buy the dip.
RIL shares have underperformed the benchmark Nifty50 index, which has fallen around 11% this year amid sharp surge in oil prices, AI concerns and other headwinds. RIL, which holds nearly 8% weight in the index, also faced multiple headwinds.
The shares of billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate saw a sharp downturn in March when the government reintroduced windfall taxes on diesel and ATF exports, reversing its earlier decision to scrap such taxes, as authorities sought to recalibrate revenue from the energy sector amid heightened volatility in global oil markets at the onset of the Middle East conflict. The company is a major exporter of ATF and diesel. Its two refineries at Jamnagar produce nearly 5 million tonnes of aviation turbine fuel, a large part of which is exported. Overall, it produces one-fourth of India’s total ATF. The stock has remained range-bound so far, despite rising refining and petrochemical margins.
Reliance's 21% fall this year reflects pressure on near-term earnings and valuation rather than a breakdown in its core businesses, said Vaqarjaved Khan, Senior Fundamental analyst at Angel One . He added that the oil-to-chemicals segment has been caught in the West Asia disruption, where higher crude premiums, freight costs and fuel retail under-recoveries have diluted the benefit of strong cracks.
Investors are also worried that the Jio listing, structured as a fresh issue, may widen the holding company discount instead of unlocking value for Reliance shareholders, the analyst noted. Meanwhile, the consumer engine is holding up well. Jio and Retail now contribute over half of EBITDA, and the June quarter was ahead of expectations, Khan highlighted.
“At current levels, much of the bad news appears priced in. We would not chase a bottom, but long-term investors can accumulate in tranches over the next few months. Key triggers ahead include Jio's IPO pricing, the next tariff hike, stability in refining margins and progress in the new energy business,” the analyst said.
The technical charts for Reliance Industries may not impact exuberance. Sudeep Shah, Vice President of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, noted that the RSI for the heavyweight stock is in a falling mode and has slipped below the 40 mark, indicating weak bearish momentum. It continues to trade significantly below its key moving averages.
Overall, the price action structure remains weak, with no clear signs of reversal emerging so far, according to Shah. On the upside, the zone of Rs 1,275–1,280 is likely to act as an immediate resistance, and the bearish bias is likely to remain intact as long as the stock trades below this zone, he added.
“At current levels, it may be prudent to avoid buying the dip. Buying can be considered only after strong reversal signals emerge,” the technical analyst concluded.