NSE ends Day 1 up 1.9%: Brokerages see upto 15% upside for ‘The Dominator’

The market debut of India’s largest stock exchange, the National Stock Exchange was more or less on expected lines. After its public offer was subscribed nearly six times, the NSE shares listed on BSE at Rs 1,800 per share, at a mere 0.84% premium over its issue price. However, the share price of NSE surged 5% to an intraday high of Rs 1,878.

While the headline indices plunged, weighed down by rising crude oil prices, higher US treasury yields, and crashing insurance stocks, NSE ended the day 1.9% higher at Rs 1,818. Much of the day’s gains came after several global and domestic brokerages initiated coverage on the stock, with upsides ranging from 9% to 15%.

Despite the modest opening, NSE’s listing was one of the better ones among the country’s biggest public offerings, including Hyundai Motor India, LIC, and Paytm. Tata Capital, another large issue, had fared slightly better on listing.

Market participants were not expecting huge gains from the listing either, as suggested by the grey-market premium, which fell sharply to Rs 40, an 87% fall from the high of Rs 310 at the beginning of the month.

Three brokerages–Macquarie, Emkay Global, and PL Capital initiated coverage on the stock with positive recommendations.

Macquarie rated NSE ‘Outperform’ and set a target price of Rs 1,965, implying an upside of 10% from the issue price. PL Capital set a target of Rs 1,950 with ‘Accumulate’ rating. Emkay Global is relatively more bullish on the stock, setting a price target of Rs 2,050, almost 15% upside from the issue price of Rs 1,785 per share.

The three brokerages highlighted NSE’s huge market share in the cash and equity derivatives segment and its ability to navigate regulatory changes as the key levers of growth. Global brokerage Macquarie called the stock “The Dominator”, mainly because of its market share and power.

However, brokerage house PL Capital flagged some concerns in the index options market share, which has declined to 65% so far in FY27 from 72% in FY26 and 97% in FY24. The brokerage also said regulatory curbs on weekly expiries, introduction of the closing auction session, and prop trading rules have hurt industry volumes and could result in lower growth over FY29 from FY26.

Most market observers see NSE as a strong long-term Buy given the rising opportunity in Indian capital market space. Given that NSE commands the major chunk of market share, they believe it will be a direct beneficiary of the growth seen in Indian capital market space.