The markets continue to be in a cautious zone, with the Nifty trading close to its June lows. Its returns in 2026 so far is deep in the red, down 10%. For an average investor the question is how long would they need to wait for a meaningful upside, and is there any magic number that they should watch out for? Most technical experts highlight that the 23,000 level can be a key decider.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities pointed out that from a technical perspective, the “Nifty has managed to sustain above the June low near 23,000, which is an encouraging sign and indicates the formation of a higher bottom. As long as the index holds above 23,200, the underlying structure remains constructive, with a decisive move above 23,500 likely to open the way towards 23,600 and, in a stronger scenario, towards 23,800.”
Anand James, Chief Market Strategy, Geojit Investments pointed out that “The key levels to watch on the way up would be 23,409, the 10-day moving average and 23,576, the recent bear candle’s high. Once clear of this, the 20-day simple moving average at 23,747 would be in line. The downside marker for the ongoing move is at 23,280 while key support below is at 23,116.”
Chandan Taparia, Head Derivatives & Technicals, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services sees major support for Nifty “near 23,150 while on the upside, the 23,650 could be a hurdle. Major support for the Bank Nifty is seen near 55,750 while upside hurdle is expected near 57,000 zone.”
According to many market experts, the Nifty has shown improving near-term price action after four consecutive positive sessions. The recent recovery has provided some relief, but stronger follow-through buying is required to confirm a meaningful improvement in the trend.
However, on the downside, Chouhan believes that “a break below 23,200 could drag Nifty towards 23,000, while a sustained close below 23,000 would weaken the structure significantly and could trigger a sharper correction towards 22,800–22,650.”
The sharp increase in global oil prices due to the escalation of tension across West Asia and global bond yields has cast a pall of gloom on the Indian markets. Though US yields have somewhat eased, the broad trend remains high due to the weakening fiscal positions of many developing countries. Many believe that this has overshadowed India’s improved economic and earnings outlook.
As a result, Chouhan pointed out that “23,000–23,200 remains a crucial support zone, while 23,600 acts as the immediate hurdle. From a medium- to long-term perspective, declines towards the 23,000–22,800 zone may offer opportunities for investors with an appropriate investment horizon, subject to their risk appetite.”
For now all eyes would be on whether Nifty can hold steady above the key 23,200 level.