Domestic equities managed to claw back a significant portion of their early losses on Friday, September 11, as a sharp pullback in global crude prices eased some of the pressure on oil-dependent sectors. The recovery was also aided by buying interest at lower levels after the recent market decline pushed the benchmark indices into oversold territory, encouraging value-oriented purchases.
The Nifty 50 staged a recovery of 0.72% from its intraday low, although it remained in negative territory at the close, ending 0.34% or 80 points lower at 23,398. The Sensex also pared most of its losses during the session before finishing 0.16% or 148 points lower at 74,754.
The improvement in sentiment came alongside a decline in international crude prices. Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped 2.3% to $105.14 per barrel, retreating after having crossed the $108-per-barrel mark earlier. For context, Brent had been trading at approximately $72 per barrel in late February, before the war began.
Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 2% to $100.46 per barrel. Where is Nifty 50 headed? The Nifty 50 is showing signs of continued weakness, with the index trading below key moving averages and momentum indicators pointing towards sustained selling pressure.
After the recent correction, traders are now closely watching crucial support and resistance levels to gauge whether the benchmark can stabilise or face another leg lower. According to Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Technical Research, Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, Nifty 50 is currently indicating a weak technical structure after slipping below its key moving averages.
The index has immediate support at 23,200–23,250, which is an important recent swing-low zone. If this support breaks decisively, the next supports are placed around 23,000–22,900, followed by 22,400."On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 23,500, where the index has previously found support and may now face selling pressure.
Above this, the major resistance zone is 24,000–24,100, representing a cluster of key moving averages. A sustained move above 24,100 can improve the structure and open the way towards 24,300–24,350," he predicted. Momentum indicators remain weak, with RSI near 25 and DMI showing bearish dominance, suggesting continued downside pressure.
Hence, the strategy should remain cautious, with 23,200 as the key support and 24,100 as the major resistance, advised the expert. Meanwhile, Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking believes that at the current juncture, aggressive dip-buying should be avoided and a staggered approach would be more appropriate.
Investors should wait for the broader market to show signs of stabilisation rather than attempting to catch the bottom."From a technical perspective, Nifty is currently trading below all its key EMAs, keeping the short-term structure weak. The immediate and important support zone lies around 23,000–23,070, which is also aligned with the previous higher-low structure.
Holding this zone could trigger a technical rebound, while a decisive break below it could extend the correction further. Hence, fresh buying should preferably be considered only after the index starts forming a base and regains key technical levels," he stated.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.