Lodha Developers pre-sales dull, but business development activity remains solid

Realty company Lodha Developers Ltd’s latest business update didn’t excite the Street. Pre-sales or bookings rose 10% year-on-year to ₹4,450 crore in Q1FY26. This growth rate is lower than its full-year growth guidance of 20%. Thus, the stock fell 1.5% on Tuesday. According to the management, geopolitical tensions in the first half of the quarter led to loss of activity for around two weeks. But the management is confident of recovering the loss in the latter part of the year. Lodha remains on track to achieve its FY26 pre-sales guidance of ₹21,000 crore, aided by a strong launch pipeline on the back of significant business development achieved in Q1FY26, it said. In line with the pre-sales trajectory, collections rose 7% year-on-year to ₹2,880 crore but fell sequentially. The management expects collections to be significantly higher in H2FY26 versus H1FY26. On the business development front, Lodha added five new projects across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, Pune, and Bengaluru with gross development value (GDV) or revenue potential of ₹22,700 crore. This is more than 90% of its full-year business development guidance of ₹25,000 crore. Analysts at Nuvama Research expect Lodha to exceed its business development guidance in FY26 just like it did in FY25. Lodha had added ten new projects (excluding digital infra) in FY25 with a GDV of around ₹23,700 crore, beating its target of new project additions worth ₹21,000 crore. However, Lodha will have to clock around 22% year-on-year growth in pre-sales during Q2–Q4FY26 to meet its FY26 pre-sales target, said the Nuvama report dated 7 July. Meanwhile, strong business development activities and continued approvals for ongoing projects led to net debt inch-up by around ₹1,090 crore sequentially to ₹5,080 crore at Q1FY26-end. As of now, key leverage metric–net debt-to-equity ratio–remains below the company’s target of 0.5x, but movement in debt will be closely watched. Also Read: Why Macrotech is upbeat about its prospects even as India's realty market braces for a slowdown Lodha’s shares are down around 3% so far in 2025 versus Nifty Realty index’s 8% drop. The stock’s performance can revive meaningfully on pre-sales picking up from hereon and timely new launches. Geographical diversification and the pace of land monetisation at Palava are also seen as other potential triggers. Remember, in its Q4FY25 earnings call, the management had said that it plans to enter a new city in FY26. On the flipside, an industry-specific challenge is emerging as rising home prices have made affordability a growing concern for buyers. This is feared to lead to demand moderation for residential units in key markets.