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Bulls take the wheel as Nifty eyes lifetime high after breaking free

Supported by bullish rollover signals from the June derivatives expiry, the index has turned former resistance into fresh support, even as foreign investors continue to pare equity holdings while domestic institutions keep pouring in funds.

Bulls take the wheel as Nifty eyes lifetime high after breaking free

Nifty 50 on Track to Break Record High

The Nifty 50 index is poised to challenge its record high after a decisive breakout from a range-bound period. Supported by strong rollover signals from the June derivatives expiry, the index has transformed former resistance levels into new support.

This bullish trend continues despite foreign investors reducing equity holdings, offset by significant investments from domestic institutions.

  • Thursday's Surge: The Nifty 50 jumped 1.2% to 25,549, decisively breaking through the 24,500-25,200 range that had constrained it since mid-May.
  • Friday's Gains: Further consolidating its gains, the index closed at 25,637.8 on Friday, a mere 2.5% shy of its all-time high of 26,277.35 (September 27, 2024).
  • Sensex Mirrors Success: The BSE Sensex followed suit, rising 1.2% on Thursday and an additional 0.4% on Friday, currently just 2.28% below its record high.

Rollover Data Signals Strength: A significant 80% of Nifty futures contracts were rolled over to the July series, exceeding the three-month average of 78% (IIFL Capital Services).

Expert Analysis:

  • IIFL Capital Services notes the breakout from a bullish continuation pattern, projecting a move towards previous highs (around 26,200).
  • Kruti Shah, quant analyst at Equirus Securities, highlights the decisive break of the 25,200 resistance as a key indicator of the Nifty's upward trajectory towards all-time highs.
  • Next week's projected range is 25,380 (support) to 25,920 (resistance), with a bias towards the upper end.

Domestic Inflows Fuel Rally: The market's upward momentum is fueled by substantial domestic investment from mutual funds, pension, and insurance funds. This is in contrast to foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) who have been net sellers.

  • Significant DII Investments: Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) invested approximately $40 billion between January and June 2025, while FPIs sold $10.7 billion during the same period (Nitin Jain, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management).
  • Mutual Funds Lead the Way: Mutual funds accounted for a dominant 68% ($27 billion) of DII inflows, surpassing the $11 billion invested in all of 2024. Other domestic institutions contributed another $13 billion.