BSE share price rallies 4%; Motilal Oswal upgrades stock to 'Buy'

BSE share price movement Share price of BSE surged 4 per cent to ₹3,369 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in Monday’s intraday deals after brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’ with a target price of ₹4,000 per share.
The stock price of the exchange and data platform company bounced back 12 per cent from its low of ₹3,000 touched on October 1, 2026. Thus far in the calendar year 2026, BSE outperformed the market by soaring 28 per cent, against a 13 per cent decline in the Nifty 50.

The stock hit a 52-week high of ₹4,446.80 on May 27, 2026. Check - TOP GAINERS NSE | TOP LOSERS NSEMOFSL upgrades BSE to ‘Buy’ “BSE’s notional average daily turnover (ADTO) for year-to-date financial year 2026-2027 (YTDFY27) stands at ₹213 trillion and the brokerage firm expects FY27 ADTO to be ₹216 trillion, aided by volume normalization following December 2026.
Heightened volatility during that period may lead to a further upgrade to our volume estimates,” MOFSL said in the company update. BSE’s futures & options (F&O) notional ADTO surged 85 per cent in October 2026 month-to-date (MTD) vs. the post-closing auction session (CAS) reset in August 2026 (-34 per cent month-on-month (MoM)).

With the partial CAS reversal effective December 7, 2026, the recovery has a regulatory catalyst beyond the current volatility-led spike. Analysts at MOFSL expect FY27 ADTO of ₹216 trillion (+16 per cent YoY), with upside potential if the recovery sustains.
While BSE has achieved a 30 per cent plus market share in premium turnover, further market-share expansion remains possible. The premium-to-notional ratio has already climbed to ~14bp from 6–7bp in 2023–24, against 20bp+ for NSE. Further convergence, driven by institutional participation and longer-dated contracts, can deliver meaningful earnings upside over and above volume growth, the brokerage firm said.

Further, cash market share improved from 7 per cent to 9 per cent, while NSE’s listing and the opening of its lock-in in March 2027 offer a further catalyst for turnover. Improving smart-order routing and platform participation strengthens the case for a sustained step-up in cash-market activity with the FY26-28 ADTO compound annual growth rate (CAGR) expected at 30 per cent.
BSE’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin expanded to 65 per cent plus in FY26 from 9 per cent in FY21, demonstrating the scalability of its model. With margins expected to reach 70 per cent, analysts at MOFSL forecast a 27 per cent FY26-28 profit after tax (PAT) CAGR on 23 per cent revenue CAGR.

The variable nature of regulatory costs (55 per cent of opex) provides a degree of insulation against volume slowdowns, it added. The brokerage firm raised its revenue and PAT estimates by 8 per cent/10 per cent and 10 per cent/12 per cent, respectively, for FY27/FY28, supported by the strong volume run-rate, the likely benefit of the CAS reversal and the benefit of NSE listing on cash volumes.
A sustained volume recovery combined with an improving premium-to-notional (P/N) ratio could drive a further 20 per cent increase in FY28E PAT, analysts said. They do not reflect the views of Business Standard. Readers are advised to exercise discretion.