Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd (M&M), Maruti Suzuki India Ltd, Eicher Motors Ltd, Hero MotoCorp Ltd and Bajaj Auto Ltd could deliver double digit returns going ahead, targets by BNP Paribas suggest. Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors PV may deliver flattish returns, the foreign brokerage said in an India electric vehicles note.

BNP said electric two-wheeler (E2W) registrations increased by 7 per cent month-on-month (MoM) while its penetration declined 190 basis points MoM to 9.6 per cent. It said November is likely to see a similar trend, owing to festive season in the first two weeks.

For October, BNP Paribas said Hero MotoCorp saw the highest market share expansion of 160 bps MoM to 13.4 per cent, followed by TVS Motor India Ltd which gained 90bp MoM reaching 27 per cent market share. Market shares contracted 140 bps for Bajaj Auto to 21.9 per cent, 105 bps for Ola Electric to 5.4 per cent and 60 bps for Ather Energy to 14.2 per cent.

Among its coverage stocks, BNP Paribas suggested a target of Rs 8,750 on Eicher Motors, Rs 6,050 on Hero MotoCorp and Rs 11,955 on Bajaj Auto, hinting at 13-18 per cent potential upside.

In the case of electric passenger vehicle, modest growth in EVs MoM led to a decline in penetration. EPV registrations grew a modest 2 per cent MoM while penetration fell 90 bps MoM to 7.2 per cent. The seasonal decline in penetration this year was softer than the 180 bps MoM decline in October 2025. Mahindra & Mahindra and MG gained while Tata Motors PV and VinFast lost market share, BNP Paribas said.

BNP suggested a target of Rs 4,130 on M&M, hinting at 42 per cent potential upside. Target for Maruti Suzuki stands at Rs 15,130, suggesting 27 per cent upside. Tata Motors PV's target has been set at Rs 290, implying 5 per cent upside.

In the case of electric light commercial vehicle (eLCV) registrations grew 20 per cent while ICE LCV sales increased 13 per cent. "eLCV penetration saw a modest improvement of 20 bps MoM to 5.5 per cent. Tata Motors CV’s (NC) market share declined by 500 bps MoM to 43.6 per cent while for Euler Motors and Mahindra Last Mile Mobility, market share declined by 50 bps MoM each," it said.

BNP suggested a target of Rs 155 for Ashok Leyland, hinting at 1 per cent upside.