With 3.9 Million New Additions, Jio Leads In Active Telecom Subscriber Jump In October: Jefferies

Telecom Sector Witness Strong Subscriber Growth in October

According to a recent equity research report by Jefferies, Jio's active subscriber market share has risen by 150bps to 43% over the past 12 months, driven by market share gains across circles.

Subscriber Additions in October

• Jio added 3.9 million telecom subscribers.
• Bharti added 2.8 million telecom subscribers.
• VIL lost 0.4 million active subscribers.

The sector's active subscriber base rose by 5.7 million to 1,094 million in October, the highest monthly addition in the past five months. Active subscriber base grew by ~34 million during CYTD'25, the highest in 8 years.

Subscriber Additions by Circle

While non-urban markets (B/C Circles) witnessed 5.2 million/4.3 million subscriber additions, Urban markets (A Circles and Metro) saw declines of -3.1 million and -0.6 million. Jio (+3.9 million) and Bharti (+2.8 million) led subscriber additions, while Vodafone lost 0.4 million subscribers.

• Jio added more active subscribers than Bharti for the 8th straight month.
• Bharti's 2.8 million subscriber additions was the highest addition in the last 9 months.
• Subscriber additions were concentrated in a few circles, with Bharti gaining active subscribers in 9 out of 22 circles.

4G/5G Subscribers Continue to Pick Up

The sector's 4G/5G subscriber base grew by 2.9 million in October after rising by 4.8 million in September. Jio (+2.3 million) and Bharti Airtel (+1.8 million) dominated data subscription additions, while BSNL/MTNL (-0.3 million) and VIL (-0.5 million) saw moderate declines.

• Jio and Bharti gained 10bps data subscriber market share.
• Their combined market share is healthy at 84%.

VIL's Subscriber Base Remains Volatile

VIL's active subscriber base fell by 0.4 million, reversing the improvement seen over the last two months. However, its subscriber losses are moderating, with VIL losing an average of 0.5 million subs per month in CYTD'25 vis-à-vis an average loss of 1.7 million subs per month in CY24.

Jio's Subscriber Market Share Gains Continue

Over the past 12 months, Jio's active subscriber market share has risen by 150bps to 43%, driven by market share gains across circles (60bps/150bps/170bps/120bps in Metros/A/B/C-Circles). Bharti Airtel's active subscriber market share has fallen by ~10bps to 36%, led by market share loss in A, B and C Circles partly offset by gains in Metros.

MNP Requests Remain Near Record-High

The sector's MNP requests remain elevated at 15 million, near the record-high level, possibly as users continue to shift between operators post-tariff hikes, said the report.

Key Takeaways

• Strong pick up in subscriber base for the sector despite high tariffs suggests that there is more headroom for tariff hikes.
• Rising data penetration and Jio's continued outperformance vs Bharti on active subscriber additions should be positive for the sector's overall tariff outlook.
• VIL's active subscriber base additions remain volatile however the losses have moderated suggesting encouraging trends for Indus Towers.