Fed meet, Q4 earnings, US-Iran tensions likely to drive stock market this week

New Delhi: A mix of global and domestic triggers, including the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decision, ongoing earnings season, geopolitical tensions and crude oil price movements, are expected to guide the Indian stock market in the coming week after benchmark indices ended lower.

Indian equity benchmarks, the Sensex and Nifty, closed in the red after two straight weeks of gains, weighed down by rising geopolitical tensions and cautious commentary from major IT firms.

After a brief early uptick, markets remained under pressure through the week amid sustained selling.

The Nifty declined 1.87 per cent to settle at 23,897.95, while the Sensex dropped 2.33 per cent to end at 76,664.21.

Commenting on Nifty technical outlook, experts said that on the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 24,000, followed by 24,150 and 24,350 levels.

“On the downside, support is seen at 23,800 and then at 23,700. A decisive break down below 23,500 could trigger further downside pressure,” an analyst said.

Going ahead, investors will closely track the outcome of the upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled for April 28–29.

Markets are widely expecting the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for a third consecutive meeting, after pausing rate action in January and March following earlier rate cuts.

Back home, the fourth-quarter earnings season will gather pace, with more than 200 companies set to announce their results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026.

Investors will watch corporate commentary closely for cues on demand outlook, margin pressures and sectoral trends, particularly after subdued guidance from IT majors in recent weeks.

Geopolitical developments will also remain on the radar, especially the ongoing tensions linked to the US-Iran situation.

Fresh remarks by Donald Trump regarding engagement with Iran have added to uncertainty, keeping global markets on edge.

Any escalation or de-escalation could have a direct bearing on investor sentiment.

Crude oil prices are another key variable influencing market direction. Prices remained volatile during the week, with supply concerns and hopes of renewed US-Iran talks driving fluctuations.